Congress flags 'dramatic rise' in Russia’s oil exports to India

The Congress has expressed concerns over significant shifts in India's oil import patterns and trade relationships, highlighting findings from a recent McKinsey Global Institute report titled 'Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade: 2025 Update'.

According to the report, Russia's share in India's oil imports surged from a mere 1 per cent in 2017 to 30 per cent by 2024. Additionally, it points out that while India's imports from China are increasing, its exports to China are declining.

The report also notes that Indian exports to the USA and Europe are becoming increasingly dependent on China, and that ASEAN nations appear to be the primary beneficiaries of the USA's gradual shift away from trade reliance on China.

In a post on X on Friday, Congress MP and general-secretary (communications) Jairam Ramesh highlighted the report and emphasised that between 2017 and 2024, Russia's share in India's oil imports surged from just 1 per cent to 30 per cent.

These trends, according to Ramesh, have significant geopolitical implications for India's trade and energy strategies.

“A recent research report of the McKinsey Global Institute 'Geopolitics and the Geometry of Global Trade: 2025 Update' has some significant findings relevant to India,” Ramesh wrote.

In response to these developments, India is adjusting its trade strategies. In January 2025, the United States emerged as India's fifth-largest oil supplier, with imports rising sharply to 218,400 barrels per day (bpd) from 70,600 bpd in December 2024. Russia remained the top supplier with 1.58 million bpd, although future imports may decline due to ongoing US sanctions. India's refiners are expected to increase energy purchases from the US, aiming for $25 billion in imports, up from $15 billion the previous year.

Furthermore, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Washington, India committed to increasing its purchase of US industrial goods. This move aims to address the $45.6 billion trade deficit the US has with India and to negotiate a trade deal to enhance industrial goods exports. In January 2025, India's merchandise trade deficit stood at $22.99 billion, with exports at $36.43 billion and imports at $59.42 billion.

These shifts in trade dynamics reflect India's efforts to diversify its energy sources and balance its trade relationships amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes.