Iraq heads for elections amid fragile balance in West Asia — but do the polls even matter?

Iraq is weeks away from a pivotal parliamentary election that should guide the nation through one of West Asia’s most sensitive phases in years.

While the Gaza ceasefire has reduced immediate regional tensions, concerns linger about renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, Iraq’s neighbour. During the brief but crippling assault on Iran from Israel and the US in June, Iraq stayed largely on the sidelines — but Baghdad now feels mounting pressure from Washington over the presence of Iran-allied armed groups in the country.​

Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who came to office in 2022 backed by pro-Iran parties, has since tried to balance ties with both Tehran and Washington. The 11 November vote, however, will decide if al-Sudani becomes one of the rare Iraqi premiers to earn a second term.

A total of 7,768 candidates — 2,248 women and 5,520 men — will vie for 329 seats in its parliament. Leading factions include Shiite blocs helmed by former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, cleric Ammar al-Hakim and several parties linked to powerful militias; Sunni camps led by former speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi and current speaker Mahmoud al-Mashhadani; and the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.​

However, this contest is as notable for who is absent. The Sadrist Movement, led by influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr — whose bloc won the most seats in 2021 but withdrew after failed post-election talks — will boycott the polls. In Sadr City, banners read, “We are all boycotting upon orders from leader al-Sadr. No to America, no to Israel, no to corruption.”

The Victory Coalition, led by former prime minister Haider al-Abadi, is also boycotting the polls, citing alleged corruption.

New reformist groups emerging from the massive anti-government protests of late 2019 are participating — but face challenges of division, scarce funding and little institutional support.

The corruption card and violent ‘contests’

The elections have been marred by entrenched allegations of vote buying and corruption. Analyst Bassem al-Qazwini called these “the most exploited since 2003 in terms of political money and state resources” per an Associated Press report.

According to an anonymous campaign official, candidates are distributing money and buying voter cards for up to 300,000 Iraqi dinars ($200). The Independent High Electoral Commission has promised strict monitoring, warning that violators will be “immediately disqualified”.

Political violence has already struck as well: On 15 October, Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al-Mashhadani, a Sunni candidate, was killed by a car bomb — an act attributed to ‘electoral competition’ by veteran political observers. MP Aisha Ghazal al-Masari condemned the killing as “a cowardly crime reminiscent of the dark days of assassinations” (referring to Iraq’s political transition after the 2003 US-led invasion).

Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias continue to leverage considerable military and financial power. Parties linked to Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and other armed groups remain a powerful force both in politics and on the streets.

Al-Sudani told journalists, “We cannot prevent any group from engaging in politics if they renounce arms. This is a step in the right direction.”

Yet some militias still operate arms and enjoy considerable autonomy at the same time.

The US state department, meanwhile, continues to try and influence regional politics in West Asia — as per usual — having recently pressed al-Sudani to “disarm Iran-backed militias that undermine Iraq’s sovereignty, threaten lives and businesses and pilfer Iraqi resources for Iran”. Many observers concluded that Iran was Washington’s primary concern, for all that it was placed last.

Al-Sudani positions himself as a pragmatist focused on public services, with polling showing improved Iraqi confidence: the Al-Mustakella Research Group (a Gallup affiliate) reports 55 per cent of Iraqis now believe the country is heading in the right direction for the first time since 2004.

However, only one Iraqi PM — Nouri al-Maliki — has secured a second term since 2003.

Baghdad University expert Ihsan al-Shammari noted in conversation with AP, “The premiership does not depend solely on election results [emphasis ours] but on political bloc agreements and regional and international understandings.”

For ordinary Iraqis like Saif Ali, however, apathy persists.

“What happened with regards to electricity from 2003 until now? Nothing ... What happened with water? Drought has reached Baghdad. These are the basic services, and they are not available, so what is the point of elections?” the interlocutor asked an AP journalist​.