Kerala: The Pinarayi cult is losing its appeal

With a year-and-a-half to go for the next elections to the state assembly in 2026, chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan has of late been embroiled in one controversy after another. Significantly, most of these controversies have triggered allegations that he is facilitating the agenda of the RSS–BJP in the state.

In October 2024, the 79-year-old chief minister found himself in trouble when a prominent Chennai-based newspaper clarified that representatives of a PR agency had arranged an interview with Vijayan in New Delhi — and they had suggested inserting a 'direct quote', something the chief minister had not actually said but which got published! The newspaper apologised and the chief minister distanced himself from the remark, but the damage had been done.

The use of the PR agency and the quote — which seemed to suggest that Vijayan endorsed the BJP’s allegations about 'anti-national' activities in Mallapuram caused a furore. Vijayan failed to explain why representatives of the PR agency, working apparently at the behest of the BJP, were present during the interview.

On 18 December 2024, the Kerala government issued a GO (government order) promoting two IPS officers to the rank of director general of police (DGP). This should have been a routine affair, but it sparked widespread criticism, with the opposition taking issue with the promotion of M.R. Ajith Kumar (no voice was raised against the other officer, S. Suresh), who is believed to be close to both the BJP and the chief minister.

Ajith Kumar had been stripped of the portfolio of law and order barely two months before this, having come under a cloud during the iconic Thrissur Pooram festival. Both organisers and the public were incensed over the high-handed conduct of the officer at the event, where the public was not allowed to take part freely and were kept at a distance — all orchestrated, allegedly, by Ajith Kumar, acting in the interests of the RSS.

The unsavoury incidents were seen by many as helping to consolidate the Thrissur vote in favour of the BJP’s candidate in the Lok Sabha polls, Suresh Gopi, the well-known film star. Gopi he is now a central minister.

Even the CPI, an ally of the CPI(M), alleged a conspiracy. Although many did not say so publicly, there were dark hints about a tacit understanding between the chief minister and the BJP.

An independent legislator, P.V. Anvar, went so far as to accuse the Ajith Kumar of corruption, illegal actions and amassing wealth. The chief minister, under intense public pressure, was forced to take away the key portfolio — but also did not order any disciplinary action against Ajith Kumar, as critics had demanded.

Next, in the last week of December, the SFIO (Serious Fraud Investigation Office) informed Delhi High Court that it had completed its investigation and was waiting for official sanction to proceed with the charge that a Kochi-based mining company had paid crores of rupees to Exalogic Solutions — an IT firm owned by Vijayan’s daughter — for providing services that were never rendered.

Congress legislator Mathew Kuzhalnadan wondered why the Union government was dragging its feet in granting sanction to prosecute even after the SFIO informed Delhi High Court that Exalogic received huge sums of money to influence ‘a top politician’. (Hadn't Hemant Soren, Manish Sisodia, Arvind Kejriwal and others been pulled up for similar allegations?)

All this is of a piece with the public and opposition allegations that the chief minister, despite his party’s public stance opposing the BJP, was in fact acting in alignment with the ruling party at the Centre.

Critics of the chief minister point out that Central agencies have shown no urgency to take action against Vijayan or his other party members in Kerala.

It should be remembered that the chief minister had also landed himself in a row during the infamous gold smuggling case of 2020, when customs officers seized 30 kg of gold from a diplomatic bag addressed to the UAE consulate in Thiruvananthapuram.

One of the key figures in the case was Swapna Suresh, who was a consultant with the Kerala IT department. Her arrest and questioning led to the arrest of M. Sivasankar, IAS — CM Vijayan’s right-hand man.

A lot of the fingers currently being pointed are dealing in the realm of speculation, no doubt; but the very fact that such speculation exists is symptomatic of the political climate in the state.

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Despite the intense media scrutiny and adverse publicity, though, Vijayan has come out relatively unscathed.

In fact, bucking the trend of Kerala voters alternately voting for the Congress and the CPI(M), Vijayan won a second term with a handsome majority in the 2021 assembly elections.

One explanation offered for this was the government’s robust handling of the Covid crisis and the floods that battered the state earlier. The administration’s welfare measures and the chief minister's clean personal image also helped this government to overcome anti-incumbency, leading to a triumph at the polls.

However, health minister K. Sailaja, who was feted for her handling of the pandemic, was promptly sidelined after the victory.

But now, as 2025 dawns, Vijayan’s image has taken a beating — he has been accused of being autocratic and no longer being responsive to public needs.

Proof of this came in the recent by-elections, where his party lost the crucial Palakkad seat to the Congress. There was a three-way battle, and the BJP came second, relegating the CPI(M) to the last position. The Congress fought a spirited campaign and was helped by news of a police raid on women leaders of the party staying at a hotel in town.

Earlier, in the Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) had to settle for a single seat (out of 20, Congress took 18 and the BJP’s Suresh Gopi won in Thrissur, as we noted above), just as in 2019.

The question being asked is this: “Is the Pinarayi cult losing its appeal?”

The party strongman, who consolidated power as the all-powerful state party secretary of the CPI(M), now appears to be losing his grip on the party apparatus. Nowhere is this more evident than in the internal rumblings within the district committees, the base on which the party is built — they have become increasingly vocal in their criticism of their leader. Party members are increasingly concerned about Pinarayi Vijayan's arrogance, his unapproachability and his distance from the rank and file today.

Additionally, his silence over the corruption allegations swirling over the party (including his own daughter) has led to considerable unease and criticism. Party members openly complain of a shift in attitude from the self-correction and self-criticism of the past to a brazen arrogance — and an authoritarian state.

It led to one notable observer of the state’s left-wing politics, Joseph Mathew, remarking that party members are now willing to openly criticise the chief minister, something that was unheard of in the past.

Mathew has been quoted as saying the district committees are now worried about an erosion of their vote base among the masses in the recent months and years. If true, that would explain the stirring undercurrents of opposition to Vijayan.

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Kerala is the only state still under CPI(M) rule, so the Politburo must be watching these developments with concern as well.

Vijayan’s stature in the party was such that the Politburo, the party’s highest policymaking body, had to keep its reservations to itself. But now, with local party members showing their displeasure, they may no longer feel the need to remain silent.

The natural target of all this simmering discontent is the chief minister.

Another commentator, Sreejit Panicker, has been quoted in the media as saying that in 2019 — during the drubbing the CPI(M) got in the parliamentary elections — the party could advance the excuse that national political factors were in play; but now, everyone is aware of the anti-incumbency factor and the shortcomings of governance.

However, Panicker also points to an ambivalent attitude within the party: while being aware of his shortcomings, the party still stands by Vijayan.

This can, perhaps, be explained by the fact that he is still the tallest among the party leaders, with no real rival in sight. It could also be a closing of ranks against the perceptible threat from the opposition. Given the complex political realities, then, it may be premature to entirely write off Vijayan’s chances in the next polls.

Vijayan has shown himself to be a formidable leader, organisationally, politically and administratively. But his path forward is also strewn with challenges, not least those of his own making — and they are many.

If he is to survive this phase of uncertainty and consolidate his authority again in the party — which has almost been wiped out in the rest of India — he will have to show a degree of realism and a collaborative attitude.

He has to win back the support of the rank and file, of the district committees — while at the same time winning over an increasingly disenchanted public.

In short, he has to win the battle of perception going ahead to guarantee his political future.