West Bengal: The game of thrones, Modi versus Mamata

For over a decade, Narendra Modi, the BJP and the RSS have set their hearts on ‘capturing’ West Bengal. They were sanguine of their chances of wresting the state, given the ‘lawlessness, lies and loot’, the ‘syndicate raj’ and the culture of ‘cut money’ and corruption. That hope was not entirely misplaced either. The BJP’s vote share increased at a fast clip, from a paltry 10.3 per cent in 2016 to 37–38 per cent during the 2021 assembly election and the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

In 2021, the BJP and Modi were convinced that victory was a done deal. The election result, however, was painful. The party won 77 seats in the 294-member Bengal House while Mamata Banerjee romped home with a two-thirds majority and 213 seats.

For the 2026 campaign, BJP supporters in the state expected Modi to land a rhetorical bunker-busting bomb to shatter Mamata Banerjee’s defences. There was enough ammunition in the form of corruption charges against ministers, successive rape scandals and the fiasco over recruitment of school teachers and civic volunteers.

To their surprise, Modi moderated his rhetoric during his visit to the state this month and refused to name and shame Mamata Banerjee. He seemed to be treading carefully on a bed of nasty nails, intent on not mocking Didi as he had done in 2021.

What was both significant and intriguing was Modi’s deafening silence on Bengali-speaking Indian citizens being detained as Bangladeshis across the country, some of whom were even pushed into Bangladesh.

On 16 July — two days before Modi’s rally in Durgapur — Mamata Banerjee hit the streets of Kolkata, leading a march against the targeting of Bengalis in BJP-ruled states. She lashed out at Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s assertion that Bengali speakers would be deemed Bangladeshis in the next census. “Is West Bengal not part of India?” she raged. “What right does the BJP have to arrest Bengali-speaking people?”

Modi avoided mentioning the ongoing Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar, settling instead for a ‘guarantee’ that no illegal immigrant would be allowed to vote. Was he being subdued or circumspect? Who knows.

Instead of repeating the usual slogans of ‘Ek hain toh safe hain’ and ‘Batenge toh katenge’, he waxed eloquent on restoring West Bengal’s past glory as an industrially developed state. The BJP, he said, would be the bulwark against the ‘destruction of Bengali culture and pride’ by the Trinamool Congress. Basically, he was toeing the line crafted by state BJP president Samik Bhattacharya.

The new BJP state president’s narrative has been dubbed ‘soft Hindutva’ by the local media. Bhattacharya is appealing to people in the state to sink their ideological differences in order to ‘rescue the state’ from the tyranny of Trinamool. Earlier gambits having failed, this is seen by some as a desperate pivot. Bhattacharya is, however, correct in reading the obvious discontent in a section of the electorate. (BJP’s vote share would not have gone up to 38 per cent otherwise.)

Unfortunately for the BJP, Modi is not the best person to take on Mamata Banerjee when it comes to stirring up Bengali pride. Modi’s invocation of 'Jai Maa Kali' appears laboured and contrived.

When Banerjee invoked the same sentiment on 21 July — without spelling it out — she tapped into the powerful, emotional history of blood being spilt to defend the right of Bengalis to communicate in their mother tongue. While the BJP is still formulating its response, it is too early to judge the turn Mamata’s new bhasha andolan (language movement) may take.

The BJP’s promise of a double-engine government reviving the economy of the state, offering better opportunities and income flies in the face of its record over the past decade. Central agencies like the CBI and the ED have dragged their feet in corruption cases. Union ministers from the state have shown little interest in attracting investments to West Bengal; and New Delhi has been holding back funds on flimsy grounds.

Above all, the strategy team of the BJP has failed to factor in the tactical shift of the CPI(M). Party general-secretary M. Baby and state unit chief Mohammed Salim have clearly stated that the principal enemy in Bengal is the BJP, not the Trinamool Congress. Instead of fighting Mamata Banerjee, the party is focusing on ‘left unity’; mobilising the party cadre to take up issues that matter to people — unemployment, migration, education and student politics on campuses.

The priority is to woo back a section of those voters who had shifted from the Left to the BJP for ‘protection’ and effectively isolate the saffron party.

In 2026, the BJP will be targeted like never before, with the CPI(M) firing from one front and the Trinamool Congress and Congress from the other. Even as the contours of the contest get clearer, the election remains split wide open.