India to have 1.2 Crore COVID-19 cases by November 1, finds IISc study

Coronavirus cases in India reached to touch 10 Lakh mark with one lakh cases being added in just three days. There has been no respite in spiking cases and number of deaths.

1. Coronavirus cases in India touch 10 lakh mark with record single day cases

Going by the current national trend, a team of scientists at Indian Institute of Science (IISc)  has made shocking projections, The projection made by the team estimates that India would have a few more than 35 lakh cases by September 1.

2.India is estimated to have 35 lakh cases by September 1.

The worse case scenario projection shows that Maharashtra will have 6.3 lakh total cases and 2.1 lakh active cases, it would be 2.4 lakh and 81,000 in Delhi, 1.6 lakh and 53,000 in Tamil Nadu, and 1.8 lakh and 61,000 in Gujarat.

3. Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat will remain worst hit.

The projections done by Prof Sashikumar G, Prof Deepak S and their team estimate that by September 1, India would have recorded 1.4 lakh deaths, of which 25,000 will be from Maharashtra, 9,700 from Delhi, 8,500 from Karnataka, 6,300 from Tamil Nadu and 7,300 from Gujarat.

4.The projections estimate 1.4 lakh deaths in India by September 1

By November 1, India is predicted to have 1.2 crore cases (including 30.2 lakh active) and 5 lakh deaths and by January 1, these numbers would be 2.9 crore (60 lakh) and 10 lakh. Karnataka is estimated to have 7.2 lakh cases by November 1 with 1.9 lakh active cases and 30,400 deaths, and by January 1 these numbers will be 10.8 lakh (3.7 lakh) and 78,900.

5. The study also suggests that India might see 1.2 crore cases by November 1

As per a worse scenario projection, no peak is predicted for India until end of March 2021, at which time there will be around 82 lakh active cases and still growing, 28 lakh deaths and 6.18 crore total cases. A similar analysis is done for various states.

6.Worse scenario projection shows peak will come only after March 2021

“The proposed model is a paradigm shift in mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. This modeling framework introduces a multi-dimensional equation to predict the spread of pandemics with insights into the severity of infection, duration of infection, population age etc,” Dr. Sashi said

7.The severity, duration, population, age have also been taken into consideration in the survey.

He further claimed that such insightful predictions are key for planning and said: “These insights can be used to formulate science-informed policy to revive normalcy, especially from the disruption induced by Covid-19.”

8. Scientists say, these projections can be used for planning the worse pandemc situation

There's still a shortage of ventilators and isolation beds in the country , while the healthcare system continues to collapse, the government has not put serious efforts in the enhancement of these fast shrinking health resources

9. Government has still not enhanced the shrinking health resources

The chaos in handling the coronavirus pandemic has made it all the more challenging for the nation. India has come in the top ranks of worst affected covid-19 cases in just one month and the projections made by the scientists are alarming.

10. India is moving ahead to win a wrong battle

Despite numerous suggestions put forth by experts after interactions with congress leader Rahul Gandhi, the government has not included them in its plan to fight the coronavirus pandemic

11. Government has been overlooking the suggestions given by the experts