US team likely to visit India next week for trade talks: Sources

The India–US bilateral trade talks — a saga now old enough to merit its own historical classification — are set for yet another instalment next week, with a fresh delegation of US officials expected in New Delhi, according to sources who continue to speak more freely than any official spokesperson will.

“The team is likely to come next week. Dates are being finalised, and discussions are on,” one of the sources said, deploying language that has accompanied nearly every such 'crucial' visit since the talks began drifting past deadline after deadline.

This will be the second visit by American negotiators since Washington imposed a 25 per cent tariff and an additional 25 per cent penalty on Indian exports over India’s Russian crude purchases. The first team arrived on 16 September, followed by commerce minister Piyush Goyal’s own dash to Washington on 22 September, with then–special secretary Rajesh Agrawal in tow. Agrawal, now commerce secretary, remains central to the negotiations.

The US side continues to be led by chief negotiator Brendan Lynch, whose name has now appeared in more dispatches about “ongoing talks” than any measurable breakthrough.

Next week’s discussions have been branded “important” largely because Agrawal recently reiterated that India still “hopes” to finalise a framework trade deal with the United States by the end of this year. This framework is meant to deal with the tariff blow to Indian exporters — a blow that has only intensified.

But that optimism stands in contrast to the pace of the larger process. Not only has the first tranche of the ambitious Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) — originally aimed for completion by fall 2025 — shown little sign of accelerating, but the negotiations have already exceeded initial working timelines quietly agreed upon by both sides earlier in the year.

Officials had once privately indicated that significant contours of the framework would be shaped by mid-2024; that timeline came and went without fanfare, replaced by talk of “protracted negotiations”.

Agrawal himself has acknowledged that the comprehensive BTA will “take time,” even as India labours through two parallel tracks: a framework agreement to address tariff issues, and the more ambitious, multi-chapter BTA, whose progress has been steady only in the metaphorical sense.

The leaders of both nations instructed negotiators back in February to move towards a BTA designed to more than double trade to USD 500 billion by 2030, from the current USD 191 billion. Six rounds of talks have taken place so far, with movement best described as incremental — or charitable.

Goyal also made a separate visit to Washington in May for discussions with US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick.

The US remains India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year, with bilateral trade touching USD 131.84 billion in 2024–25. The US now accounts for:

• 18 per cent of India’s total goods exports

• 6.22 per cent of imports

• 10.73 per cent of all merchandise trade

But October numbers show the tariff standoff biting: exports to the US fell 8.58 per cent year-on-year to USD 6.3 billion, while imports rose 13.89 per cent to USD 4.46 billion.

Despite the stakes, official statements remain dutifully bland. Real insights continue to come from anonymous 'sources', without whom the entire negotiation would risk vanishing into diplomatic fog.

For now, next week’s visit is being framed as another decisive moment. Whether it produces anything more concrete than the last half-dozen “crucial” trips is something observers — and certainly the sources — will be watching closely.

With PTI inputs