BJP had the ‘machinery’ backing it, Mamata Banerjee did not

Although only 1 crore votes out of 6 crore had been counted till 1.00 pm on Monday, 4 May, the writing on the wall appeared clear enough. The BJP was leading across West Bengal. Its unexpected victory even in Muslim-dominated constituencies in Murshidabad and Malda reflected how badly minority votes had been split. Pollsters claimed over 60 per cent Hindu voters in the state had consolidated behind the BJP to end the 15-year-rule of Mamata Banerjee and Trinamool Congress.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah left the state on the last day of campaigning on 27 April, both said they would return at the swearing-in of the BJP government. West Bengal governor R.N. Ravi, brought in before the election, twice declared that change was coming to the state. The day before the counting of votes, Mumbai Police gave permission to a victory march celebrating the BJP’s win in West Bengal. They did not need exit polls to tell them the result. They knew.

In hindsight, TMC's defeat will undoubtedly be attributed to people’s restlessness for change and their belief that the BJP, which had held up Central grants, would loosen the purse strings once they came to power in the state.

Big business could barely hide its happiness. Industrialist Harsh Goenka tweeted on Monday afternoon, “Bengal’s business community is absolutely delighted with result of Bengal elections: 1. Development will be back on the agenda 2. Jobs and investments will follow 3. A stronger, more cohesive social climate will emerge. A decisive mandate for BJP is the catalyst Bengal’s economy has been waiting for”.

Both Muslims and women, it was believed, would stand by the TMC. The women’s support for and loyalty to Mamata Banerjee, it was said, was not transactional and BJP’s promise of doubling the cash transfer from Rs 1,500 to Rs 3,000, it was felt, would have no impact.

This turned out to be delusionary, as the counting trend suggested. The pillars had not entirely collapsed but had cracked just enough for the BJP to cash in. Both demography and linguistic pride, wrote columnist Swaminathan Aiyar, would ensure a victory for Mamata. West Bengal, he felt, was not yet ready to accept the hegemony of Hindi-Hindu-Hindustan. Like many other commentators, he has turned out to be wrong.

Even the anger generated by a largely senseless and illogical Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls does not seem to have made any difference. The large number of migrant workers, who were subjected to considerable harassment, having to travel back and forth from their places of work in BJP-ruled states, it was argued, would vote against the BJP, which supported the exercise, with a vengeance. They apparently did not. Could they have been driven to vote for the BJP to buy peace at their place of work?

Anti-incumbency, recruitment scams, women’s safety, lack of industrialisation and steady jobs, corruption and lumpenisation of TMC cadres will be cited no doubt as some of the other factors which influenced the voters in the state. However, the key reason for the defeat of the ruling party seems to be the crippling of Mamata Banerjee by the Union government and the Election Commission ever since the election was notified on 15 March.

The unprecedented transfer of several hundred officers in the state by the Election Commission — from district magistrate and SPs to police constables — would have dealt a blow to the ruling party. The chief minister was reduced to a lame duck as Central Armed Police Forces took over police stations and collectorates. Central agencies like ED and Income Tax raided the offices and the directors of I-PAC, the political consultancy firm which acted as an extension of the ruling party in the districts. While BJP retained control over the ‘machinery’, TMC lost control of it.

The CAPF accompanied BJP candidates during campaigning and warned TMC leaders to ensure that their party cadres did not disturb BJP’s campaigning. TMC overnight stopped being ‘feared’ even as BJP president Nitin Nabin was seen riding in an armoured vehicle of the CAPF.

Reports suggested that all CAPF heads were ordered to remain in the state till after the counting; and the Union home minister — not the Election Commission — declared that 750 companies would stay back in the state even after a new government is installed. Such decisions were once left to the ECI but the difference between the Union government and the election commission has got blurred.