Reservation lottery for Mumbai mayor could upend alliances

Mumbai’s mayoral contest has taken an unusual turn, with both the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena staking claims through very different paths. The Mahayuti is counting on its numerical majority, while the Thackeray faction is openly invoking divine intervention.

But which side ultimately gets the mayor’s post will depend not on floor strength, but on a slip of paper: the reservation lottery. This slip, which many in Mumbai’s political circles now regard as 'miraculous', will determine which social category the mayor must belong to.

According to a notification issued by Maharashtra’s urban development department, the reservation for mayoral posts of 29 municipal corporations, including the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), will be announced through a lottery on 22 January. The outcome, observers say, could alter the direction of state politics.

If the draw reserves the BMC mayoralty for the Scheduled Castes, the entire arithmetic of the race will shift, because the Mahayuti does not have a single corporator from that category, whereas the Thackeray faction has two. Whether the slot is reserved for a Scheduled Caste male or female, the advantage in that scenario would lie with Uddhav Thackeray’s camp.

The two corporators elected from the Scheduled Caste category on his side are Jitendra Valvi (Ward 53) and Priyadarshini Thackeray (Ward 121). Should the 22 January draw produce this 'miracle', the keys to India’s richest municipal corporation could move firmly to Matoshree, the Thackeray residence.

Uddhav himself hinted at this during a press conference, remarking that if “God so wills”, the mayoral post could come to his faction.

Under BMC rules, the mayor’s post rotates across general, Scheduled Caste, OBC and women’s categories. This allocation was not finalised before the municipal election, necessitating the present lottery.

In that election, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats, followed by ally Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) with 29. Yet even within the Mahayuti, there is apprehension until the reservation category is known. If the mayor’s post is reserved for the general, OBC or women’s category, the alliance would be in a position to elect its own mayor.

Complicating matters, the Shinde faction has demanded that the mayor’s office be shared in two 2.5-year terms, a proposal that has reportedly been rejected by the BJP high command, creating friction within the alliance.

Across the aisle, the Thackeray camp is watching the process with a mixture of strategy and hope. Within the Thackeray coalition, Uddhav’s Sena won 65 seats, the MNS 6, and the Congress contributed 24 victorious candidates.

As the political temperature rises ahead of the draw, the city’s mayoral future rests not on floor management or backroom deals, but on the outcome of a reservation lottery that could reorder Mumbai’s civic power map.