Trump’s tariff turmoil: The men behind the math and the mess

In yet another about-turn, Donald Trump has paused his controversial tariffs for 90 days — a move aimed at buying time for negotiations, but also a tacit admission of the internal chaos plaguing his economic team. Behind the headlines lies a story of misfiring ideologies, personality clashes, and a tariff formula so cryptic, even insiders struggled to decode it.

At the centre of the storm is a group of men whose conflicting views are shaping one of the most aggressive protectionist moves in modern American history. And as recent weeks have shown, they’re not just divided — they’re openly at odds.

Navarro vs Musk

The public face of Trump’s tariff policy is Peter Navarro, the hardline trade adviser known for his combative style and disdain for multinationals. Navarro has called the paused tariffs a “reset”, not a retreat — but his credibility is under pressure.

He’s been locked in a war of words with none other than Elon Musk, whose electric car company Tesla has felt the sting of the tariff turbulence. Since April 2, Musk’s net worth has reportedly dropped by $31 billion (Bloomberg Billionaires Index). His response: attacking Navarro on social media, calling him “dumber than a sack of bricks,” before cheekily apologising.

Musk argues the tariffs are a “structural tax” on American consumers. His brother, Kimbal Musk, echoed the sentiment, accusing the White House of pushing a tax “disguised as patriotism.” Navarro, in turn, dismissed Tesla as “just a car assembler,” infuriating executives in Silicon Valley and beyond.

Who’s really running the show?

While Navarro has drawn the most attention, the real story is messier. Trump’s economic inner circle includes Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Stephen Miran — the little-known economist who, many believe, created the actual tariff formula.

According to The New York Times and Indian Express, Miran’s influence is growing rapidly. A Harvard-trained former hedge fund strategist, he has long argued that the US dollar’s role as a global reserve currency distorts trade balances — and that tariffs are needed to correct this. His 41-page 2024 essay outlined a new trade doctrine: replace the invisible hand of currency markets with the visible hand of tariffs.

Miran’s model blends trade deficits, elasticity of imports, and pass-through costs. But the math is so complex, sources inside the administration admitted to The New York Post that even senior officials didn’t fully understand it. Some reportedly found out the tariff structure only after it was announced.

Confused messaging

The disarray inside the administration has played out in public. Treasury’s Bessent suggested the tariffs could be negotiated, while Navarro insisted, they were non-negotiable. Greer tried to explain the tariffs as simply economic leverage while Lutnick insisted Trump would never budge. Kevin Hassett, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, hinted that they were just “options” prepared for the President.

The disarray inside the administration has played out in public. Treasury’s Bessent suggested the tariffs could be negotiated, while Navarro insisted, they were non-negotiable. Greer tried to explain the tariffs as simply economic leverage while Lutnick insisted Trump would never budge. Kevin Hassett, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, hinted that they were just “options” prepared for the President.

Raymond James analyst Ed Mills summed it up: “It’s Team Tariff vs Team Econ.” The result? An unpredictable policy that spooked global markets, confused allies, and infuriated America’s top business leaders. The 90-day pause may cool things temporarily, but the fundamental problems remain. The tariff plan lacks clarity, the rationale changes depending on who’s speaking, and Trump’s own demands — described by insiders as “improvised” — often override data-driven policy.

One source told The New York Post that Trump personally ordered the tariff proposal by April 1, forcing advisers to scramble. “Everyone pitched in,” they said, “but no one knew what would stick.”

What next?

Trump remains committed to tariffs as a weapon in his economic arsenal. But whether he reactivates them after the 90-day window may depend less on market realities and more on who holds sway in the room — the free-market economists, the trade warriors, or the President’s gut. For now, America’s tariff policy reflects not a unified strategy, but a chorus of clashing voices. And it’s the global economy that’s left listening, guessing, and reacting.