COP30: China shows the way, carbon emissions flatten for 18 months

China’s carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have remained flat or fallen for 18 consecutive months, according to new analysis, raising fresh hope that the world’s biggest emitter may have reached its CO₂ peak well before the government’s 2030 deadline.

The CREA (Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air), in analysis for Carbon Brief, said the trend was driven by an unprecedented boom in solar and wind installations. In the third quarter of 2025, solar power generation rose by 46 per cent and wind by 11 per cent, helping keep emissions stable despite growing electricity demand.

China added 240 GW of solar and 61 GW of wind capacity in the first nine months of 2025, positioning it for another record-breaking year after installing 333 GW of solar in 2024 — more than the rest of the world combined.

CREA found China’s emissions in Q3 were unchanged from a year earlier, aided by declining emissions in travel, cement and steel sectors. Analysts say if China follows its usual pattern of peak summer emissions, the country could end 2025 with a slight annual decline.

Key findings at a glance

• Solar generation rose 46 per cent and wind 11 per cent in Q3 2025.

• China added 240 GW solar and 61 GW wind capacity between January–September 2025.

• CO₂ emissions in Q3 were flat year-on-year, despite higher electricity demand.

• Travel, cement and steel sectors all showed declining emissions this year.

• China may achieve peak emissions ahead of 2030 if current trends hold.

Setting the stage for COP30

The findings come as global leaders meet in Belém for COP30. Both China’s Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump skipped the leaders’ summit, though Beijing has sent negotiators. UN secretary-general António Guterres warned last week that failing to limit warming to 1.5°C would be a “moral failure and deadly negligence”.

COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago praised China’s renewable push, saying rich countries had “lost enthusiasm” for climate action. “Solar panels are cheaper and so competitive that they are everywhere now,” he said.

Scope for improvement

While China appears to be outperforming on its peak emissions pledge, some sectors are moving in the opposite direction. Transport emissions fell by five per cent in Q3, but plastics and chemical production saw a 10 per cent rise. China is also on track to miss its 2020–25 goal of cutting carbon intensity — emissions per unit of GDP — meaning steeper reductions will be required to hit a 65 per cent cut by 2030 from 2005 levels.

In September, China announced its new 2035 target: cutting total greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10 per cent from their peak. Experts say the target is modest, but note China’s track record of overdelivering.

Attention is now turning to China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), where officials are expected to prioritise rapid expansion of low-carbon energy systems.