IMD cuts monsoon forecast to 90%, warns of below-normal rains

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday revised downward its forecast for the 2026 Southwest monsoon, predicting seasonal rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), raising concerns over uneven rain distribution and its possible impact on agriculture and water reserves.

In its second monsoon outlook issued on Friday, the weather office said most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, while the Northeast is expected to witness normal rainfall.

The revised estimate marks a drop from the IMD’s first forecast issued on 13 April, when it had projected monsoon rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA.

The IMD classifies rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA as “normal”. Rainfall below 90 per cent is considered deficient.

Officials said the latest revision reflects evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions, including concerns over warming sea surface temperatures and weakening monsoon circulation patterns.

Despite the downgrade, the IMD maintained that the monsoon is expected to remain active over several parts of central and eastern India during the coming weeks, with heavy rainfall spells likely in isolated regions.

The weather office also warned that rainfall distribution may remain highly uneven, increasing the risk of localised flooding in some areas while leaving others vulnerable to dry spells.

The revised forecast comes amid growing concerns over food inflation, reservoir levels and kharif sowing activity, as the monsoon accounts for nearly 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall and is critical for the agriculture sector.

The southwest monsoon has already advanced into several parts of southern and eastern India earlier than usual this year, triggering intense rain activity in states including Kerala, Karnataka, Assam and West Bengal over the past week.

Meteorologists are closely monitoring the possible emergence of weak El Niño-like conditions later in the season, which could further affect rainfall patterns across the subcontinent.

With PTI inputs