India can no longer treat climate adaptation as optional: Study

India has warmed sharply over the past decade, with new research showing the country’s average temperature has risen nearly 0.9°C between 2015 and 2024 compared to the early 20th century — a shift that is already reshaping weather patterns and driving more extreme events. The findings, published in a new peer-reviewed study, warn that the country urgently needs stronger adaptation strategies.

According to the research, the hottest day of the year has warmed even faster than the national average. Since the 1950s, peak temperatures on the hottest day have climbed by 1.5–2°C in western and northeast India, two regions already vulnerable to heat stress.

The study, authored by climate scientists from Krea University, Savitribai Phule Pune University, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Norway’s Institute of Marine Research and ICIMOD in Nepal, pulls together the latest observational datasets and climate model projections.

The picture it presents is stark: accelerated warming across India is causing more frequent and more intense heatwaves, with the country now seeing an additional 5–10 warm days every decade.

The study highlights that different parts of India are experiencing distinct — yet equally concerning — climate impacts:

• Hindukush Himalayas: Rapid warming and quickening glacier melt.

• Indo-Gangetic plains: Rising heat stress and declining monsoon rainfall during June–September.

• Northwest India: More warm days and warm nights.

• Western India: Increase in extreme rainfall events alongside more hot days and nights.

• Western coast & Arabian Sea: Rising sea levels, stronger tropical cyclones and unusually fast ocean warming.

• Northeast India: Falling JJAS rainfall and more warm nights and days.

• Sundarbans: Rapid sea-level rise combined with severe heat stress.

• Central India: Increasing episodes of extreme rainfall.

• Southeast India: More warm nights/days and higher northeast monsoon rainfall.

One of the study’s most concerning insights is the growing likelihood of compound climate events — when multiple hazards strike at the same time or in quick succession, such as heatwaves paired with droughts.

These events can overwhelm emergency systems and trigger cascading impacts on water supply, agriculture, energy systems and public health. As global temperatures rise further, such compound extremes in India are expected to become far more common.

The tropical Indian Ocean is warming at 0.12°C per decade, placing it among the fastest-warming oceans in the world. This is supercharging marine heatwaves, which could surge from around 20 days a year today to nearly 200 days a year by 2050. Such prolonged heat poses a major threat to coral reefs and fisheries — lifelines for millions in the region.

Meanwhile, the Arabian Sea has emerged as a new hotspot for severe tropical cyclones. The maximum intensity of pre-monsoon cyclones has risen by 40 per cent in recent decades, and rising sea levels are compounding the risks of storm surges and coastal flooding. What were once once-in-a-century extreme sea-level events are projected to occur annually by mid-century, the researchers warn.

The authors emphasise that India must dramatically step up its climate preparedness. They call for region-specific adaptation plans, climate-resilient infrastructure, stronger multi-hazard early-warning systems and agricultural practices designed for extreme weather.

With extreme heat, erratic rainfall, powerful storms and collapsing marine ecosystems looming larger each year, the study argues that India can no longer treat climate adaptation as optional — it is now a matter of national security, economic stability and public health.

With PTI inputs