BJP manages to win in Goa as 67% vote share gets fragmented

The BJP managed to buck the anti-incumbency trend of being in power for the past 10 years, by registering a victory with 19 seats to its kitty. With help of independents and possibly even the MGP, the party is eyeing a return to power.

Besides the split in votes, thanks to the one too many parties in the fray consolidating the BJP’s favour, the strengths of its organisational base saw the ruling party retain its 33% vote share despite a high-pitched campaign from the opposition fighting for the same available space. Despite winning from the Sanquelim constituency by a lesser margin than he expected, the results in favour of the BJP saw chief minister Dr Pramod Sawant emerge as a stronger leader.

A look at the results shows seats won by the Congress and BJP have been comfortable wins and not wafer-thin margins as seen in the case of the other parties like AAP and Revolutionary Goans Party which are making an entry into the Goa legislative assembly for the very first time.

Goa Congress leader and former union minister Ramakant Khalap attributed the Congress’ loss to the decisive voting by the electorate. “There has been a split in votes at many places. But Congress will have to introspect to understand why its actions failed to bring it to power. Some of the mistakes include the selection of candidates, building the party at the grassroots, etc.,” he said.

Political analyst and former MLA Radharao Gracias pointed out that Goans living in the Portuguese areas of the Novas Conquistas or new conquests like Pernem, Bicholim, Sattari, Ponda, etc. had an alternative when it came to political parties. “If not the BJP, then there is the MGP or the Congress. But for the Catholic-dominated old conquest areas in south Goa, the BJP and MGP were not acceptable for various reasons. Here Congress was the only choice for the people despite it failing. The emergence of TMC and AAP has given the voter an alternative as has been seen. In the future this might lead to the Congress taking a bigger hit in Salcete taluka of south Goa, considered a party stronghold,” Gracias said.

Academician and political commentator Dr Manoj Kamat said that the Goa results show that Congress never calculated to keep the anti-BJP vote share intact and the required strategy for this appeared to have been lacking. “If you look at how things stand, the voting percentage of the BJP and AAP has remained constant, but that of the Congress has decreased. Why? Because Congress was unable to deliver by being aggressive in a few constituencies where the loss has been a wafer-thin margin. The party should have been more aggressive and taken the narrative in full spirit,” he said.

Dr Kamat pointed out that while the induction of Michael Lobo from the BJP into the Congress had led to him delivering seats in Bardez, in the Congress stronghold of Salcete, the party lost because of the split caused by AAP or TMC. “AAP on the other hand caused a split in Congress votes in Salcete and managed two wins, but failed in its overall strategy of looking away from the Catholic-dominated areas of south Goa. By focusing on north Goa through its convenor Rahul Mahambre, it failed to bag a single seat in those areas,” he said. Overall, Dr Kamat says it looks like the BJP because of its micro-level seat planning has won this particular election and that is the only reason why Congress lost.

Professor Nilesh Borde of the Goa Business School, Goa University said that the results clearly showed that the people had made up their mind on either voting for the Congress or the BJP. “I believe that Congress got more involved in playing mind games rather than playing on the ground. And that's where the problems came in. I think to a large extent you also have this problem of Congress suffering because of their ego hazards. So, if 33% is what BJP used to win and continues to win, it still shows that BJP is a minority. It simply means that 67% of Goans do not want the BJP to rule them. The problem however is that this 67% are not working as 67% but as different compartments of 2% 4% and 6%. That's when the 33% gets magnified,” Professor Borde explained.