As Donald Trump withdraws aid, what support do EU, UK propose for Ukraine?

British prime minister Keir Starmer announced on Sunday, 2 March, that European leaders have agreed to formulate a Ukraine peace plan to present to the United States, Reuters had reported.

This initiative, aimed at securing essential US security guarantees to bolster Kyiv in the face of Russian aggression, is now left on the table with the US just having announced withdrawal of aid to Ukraine — 'until' president Volodymyr Zelenskyy agrees to peace talks with Russia on POTUS Donald Trump's terms and also, seemingly, signs a minerals deal crucial to the American interests.

No minerals, no aid, it would seem.

The EU decision had emerged from a summit in London, convened shortly after the contentious meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump.

During this summit, European leaders had expressed robust support for Ukraine and committed to enhancing its defence capabilities. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen had emphasised the necessity of increased defence investment, stating that Europe must transform Ukraine into a "steel porcupine" to deter potential invaders.

Along these lines, on behalf of the UK, Starmer offered a comprehensive four-step plan aimed at securing peace in Ukraine, following the summit with European leaders in London.

The key components of his plan are:

Sustained support for Ukraine: Ensuring the continuous flow of military aid to Ukraine and intensifying economic pressure on Russia to bolster Ukraine's defence capabilities during the ongoing conflict. Starmer in particular mentioned Britain's offer of economic security — via British jobs, British skills and British finance — towards Ukraine's (and the UK's own) national security. (That last statement clearly solidifies UK with much of the EU in an anti-Russia alliance, and recognises the risk of 'today Ukraine, tomorrow the world' that exists with a Russia under Putin.)

Ensuring sovereignty in peace negotiations: Any peace agreement must fully respect Ukraine's sovereignty and security, with Ukraine actively participating in all peace talks to ensure its interests are represented.

Enhancing defensive capabilities: Post-conflict, efforts will focus on strengthening Ukraine's defensive measures to deter any potential future invasions, thereby contributing to long-term regional stability. The UK has announced a new 1.6 billion-pound (USD 2 billion) deal that would allow Ukraine to purchase 5,000 air-defence missiles using export finance

Establishing a 'coalition of the willing': Forming a coalition of nations prepared to support and guarantee the peace agreement, with the UK expressing readiness to contribute military forces and air support as part of this collective effort.

A critical component of the EU–UK plan, however, involved securing US support for security guarantees for Kyiv, vital for deterring further Russian aggression.

European leaders are preparing to present this plan to President Trump, aiming to ensure that Ukraine is not excluded from any future negotiations.

Meanwhile, Trump has already ordered an immediate suspension of all US military aid to Ukraine, affecting over $1 billion in arms and ammunition that were in the pipeline or on order.

According to the US department of defense, the United States had committed more than $66.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden administration, including approximately $65.9 billion since Russia's unprovoked invasion on 24 February 2022.

Prior to the 2022 invasion, from 2014 to October 2021, the US had also provided an estimated $2.5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.

In total, since 2014, the US has committed approximately $69.2 billion in military assistance to Ukraine.

Will this latest move withdrawing US support prompt European nations to bolster their military support for Kyiv, given Ukraine's capabilities to defend itself alone are very much in doubt?

If the UK and the EU want their support for Ukraine to be truly effective, assuming the US remains obdurate, they will need to compensate in several key areas:

Military aid shortfall

The US has been the largest supplier of weapons, including advanced air defense systems, artillery, and long-range missiles.

The EU must step up by increasing arms deliveries, possibly expediting joint defence procurement, and unlocking more funding from the European Peace Facility.

Financial assistance

Ukraine relies on substantial financial aid to keep its government and economy running.

The EU will need to provide additional budgetary support to prevent an economic collapse and fund infrastructure rebuilding.

Air defence and ammunition production

The biggest gaps in Ukraine’s military capability are in air defence systems and artillery shells.

Could the EU accelerate arms production, ease export restrictions and explore joint purchasing initiatives in aid of Ukraine, similar to its Covid-19 vaccine strategy?

Until then, Estonia leads in providing military equipment to Ukraine — 0.8 per cent of its GDP, the highest per capita support among nations. Prime minister Kaja Kallas has positioned herself as a leading pro-Ukrainian voice in Europe.

Security guarantees

If US security guarantees become uncertain, the EU must offer stronger commitments to Ukraine’s long-term defence.

This could involve closer integration into European defence structures or even a NATO-like security pact (given NATO too has been weakened by a Trump-led US exit).

Diplomatic and political pressure

The EU must work harder to maintain international sanctions against Russia and prevent countries such as China, India and West Asian nations from providing economic relief to Moscow.

Strengthening ties with the Global South to counter Russian narratives is also crucial.

Energy and reconstruction efforts

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been devastated by Russian attacks.

The EU will need to continue providing emergency energy supplies and financing for rebuilding efforts.

Refugee and humanitarian support

Millions of Ukrainians have taken refuge in the EU, and continued support for housing, employment, and integration will be necessary. (It must be remembered here that many European national leaders, and also Starmer himself in the UK, are facing massive blowback from their citizens on allowing any immigrants at all in, in an economically rocky context.)

Bottomline:

The EU cannot fully replace the US, but if it ramps up military aid, financial support, and diplomatic pressure, it can help Ukraine stay in the fight and build a path toward long-term security. However, European unity and political willpower will be critical in sustaining these efforts.

That unity may also be hard-won, though. For even as incoming German leader Friedrich Merz promises to work towards Europe's "independence" from the US and France's Emmanuel Macron calls out Trump's claim that the US does more for Ukraine than the EU in his own Oval Office and Poland's prime minister Donald Tusk warns Russian premier Vladimir Putin “that the West has no intention of capitulating before his blackmail and aggression”, the EU also has Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni, who has been one of those to consistently opposed to the deployment of European troops to Ukraine.

In March 2024, she explicitly rejected the French president's suggestion of possible direct military intervention, stating that such actions could lead to a "dangerous escalation" that should be "avoided at all costs".

More recently, on 28 February 2025, Meloni called for an immediate summit involving the US, European nations and their allies to address critical challenges, particularly the situation in Ukraine.

Meloni's stance reflects a cautious approach to military involvement in Ukraine, prioritising diplomatic efforts and unity among the Western allies to address the ongoing conflict.

However, on Meloni's side are Slovakian prime minister Robert Fico, who has opposed military assistance to Ukraine, advocating instead for immediate peace talks and negotiating a ceasefire, and Hungarian prime minister Viktor Oban, who accuse Ukraine of having 'dragged' the European Union into a confrontation with Russia.

(Fico and has also pledged to block Ukraine's potential NATO membership and has expressed skepticism about Ukraine's EU accession prospects in 2025.)

Their collective stance is in stark contrast to European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen saying “we urgently have to rearm Europe”.

Von der Leyen said, “After a long time of underinvestment, it is now of utmost importance to step up the defence investment for a prolonged period of time.”

“Member states need more fiscal space to do a surge in defence spending,” she added.

Can the likes of von der Leyen, Starmer, Merz and Macron carry the majority of the EU with them? And to what extent will it materialise into actual deliverables?

And will it prove a mistake to have left out the Eastern European non-EU nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia from talks?

Finally, can anyone actually take the bull by the horns and force a Trumpian retreat — or will that minerals deal (that Zelenskyy is not reluctant to make, given the cards he truly does not hold) be enough concession?