Combined casualties in Russia's war on Ukraine could soon hit 2 million: Report

A new study has warned that combined Russian and Ukrainian military deaths, injuries and missing personnel could approach 2 million by this spring, with Russia reportedly sustaining the highest wartime troop losses recorded by a major power since World War II.

The assessment, published Tuesday by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), arrives weeks before the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale assault on Ukraine. The latest violence underscored the grim tally: on Wednesday, Ukrainian officials reported two civilians killed in the Kyiv region after Russian strikes hit a residential building, while at least nine others were wounded in separate attacks in Odesa, Kryvyi Rih and the front-line Zaporizhzhia region.

According to the report, Russia has absorbed an estimated 1.2 million casualties — including up to 325,000 troop deaths — between February 2022 and December 2025.

“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report concluded. “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.”

Ukraine, with far fewer personnel and a smaller population, has meanwhile suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths, the CSIS estimates.

Both Kyiv and Moscow tightly restrict information on military losses and routinely amplify the opposing side’s casualties for propaganda effect. Russia has publicly acknowledged only a little over 6,000 troop deaths, and reporting on losses inside the country has been suppressed, activists and independent journalists note.

CSIS analysts calculated that, based on current trends, total combined casualties may already be nearing 1.8 million and could reach 2 million by spring. The think tank drew on its own modelling, data compiled by Russian outlet Mediazona in collaboration with the BBC, British government estimates and interviews with officials.

A war defined by attrition

Mediazona, along with the BBC and a network of volunteers, has independently verified the names of more than 160,000 Russian soldiers killed using public obituaries, social media and official documents.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested similar tolls on his side when he told NBC in February 2025 that more than 46,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed since the war began.

CSIS analysts also emphasised Russia’s sluggish progress despite seizing the operational initiative in 2024. The conflict has settled into a grinding war of attrition across a roughly 1,000-km (600-mile) active front line, and Western officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is under little pressure to negotiate swiftly.

The report calculates that Russian forces have advanced at a rate of only 15 to 70 m (49 to 230 feet) per day in their major offensives. That is, it notes, “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century”.

Putin claimed at his annual press briefing last month that 700,000 Russian personnel were deployed in Ukraine — identical to the figure he cited in 2024, and slightly above the 617,000 he referenced in December 2023. None of these numbers can be independently verified.

Strikes continue: two killed near Kyiv

Overnight attacks continued as the casualty report circulated. On Wednesday, Mykola Kalashnyk, head of Kyiv’s regional military administration, said a man and a woman were killed in the Bilohorodka area on the capital’s outskirts.

Officials in Odesa, Kryvyi Rih and the Zaporizhzhia front-line zone all confirmed additional Russian strikes overnight that left at least nine people injured and damaged civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine’s air force reported Russia had fired one ballistic missile and deployed 146 attack drones overnight, 103 of which were either intercepted or disabled via electronic warfare.

In Moscow, the defence ministry claimed its own air defences had destroyed 75 Ukrainian drones over the same period. It said 24 were shot down in Russia’s Krasnodar region, 23 over occupied Crimea and two over the Voronezh region.

Ukraine’s General Staff, however, reported a successful strike on the Khokholskaya oil depot in Voronezh. Regional governor Alexander Gusev stated on Telegram that debris from a downed drone caused a fire involving oil products, providing no further details.

With AP/PTI inputs