Musk flags India’s fertility decline as birth rate falls below replacement level

SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk has drawn attention to India's falling birth rate, warning that the country's fertility rate has slipped below the replacement level needed to sustain population growth over the long term.

“India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago,” Musk wrote on X, sharing data highlighting the country's demographic shift.

The post referenced figures showing India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped from 2.3 to 1.9 births per woman over the past decade. A replacement-level fertility rate is generally estimated at 2.1 births per woman, the threshold required for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next without migration.

The data also pointed to sharp regional variations, with Delhi's fertility rate reportedly falling to 1.2 — lower than that of several developed countries.

The trend was echoed in the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report, which confirmed that India's fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, marking a significant demographic milestone for the world's most populous nation.

India's population currently exceeds 1.46 billion, and the country overtook China in 2023 to become the world's most populous nation. While the decline in fertility reflects improvements in education, healthcare access and family planning, experts note that India continues to face major social challenges, including maternal mortality, gender inequality and early marriage.

According to UNFPA, “India has a population of well over a billion, and wide inequalities persist, despite significant improvements in health and education.” The agency also noted that maternal mortality and gender discrimination remain concerns, while early marriage and adolescent pregnancies continue to affect women's health outcomes.

Musk's comments add India to a growing list of countries facing concerns over declining birth rates, a trend he has repeatedly described as one of the most significant long-term challenges confronting societies around the world.

With PTI inputs