How did Iran keep its missile capabilities a secret?

Russian media reports this week reported that Israel’s Rafael weapons complex had been destroyed, the Haifa oil refinery was in flames and the vaunted Iron Dome ‘missile defence system’ over Israel had been breached.

Iran also claimed to have hit the Mossad headquarters and said that most of Israel’s offensive capabilities were embedded in densely populated areas to use civilians as shields.

The ability of the Islamic Republic of Iran to inflict such damage, despite economic sanctions which have lasted longer than three decades and the sudden, unexpected and crippling attack by Israel on the night of 13 June 2025, has stunned analysts.

What makes this even more remarkable is the distance that separates Iran from Israel. The distance between Tehran and Tel Aviv itself is 1,500 kilometres and some areas are 2,400 kilometres apart. If Israel’s pilots spectacularly covered the distance, bombed their targets and returned to base, equally spectacular has been Iran’s response. The last six days have witnessed Iran unleashing an array of missiles with ranges up to 2,500 kilometres and more.

Iran also demonstrated that in keeping with the changing nature of war, it has switched to combat drones. That its drones, armed with weapons, can cover such vast distances — triggering a barrage of interceptors — was another surprise that Israel was probably not prepared for.

Even more surprisingly, Iran apparently managed to keep a lid on its missile development programme. While Israel and western powers were pre-occupied with its nuclear programme, it quietly went about experimenting and perfecting a variety of missiles.

Judging by the scores of missiles that it has been firing since the night of 14 June 2025, Iran also kept its inventory of missiles a secret.

Mossad, the much-feared Israeli agency known for its spectacular infiltration into Hezbollah, apparently also remained in the dark.

Yet, these are the same Mossad agents who, judging by Iranian reports, had not only infiltrated into Iran but also set up workshops inside Iran to manufacture drones to carry out terrorist attacks from inside. They collected intelligence as well, of course, making it easier for Israel to identify and target apartments in which some of Iran’s top commanders, generals and scientists lived with their families.

While these targets were easily identified and eliminated by Israel, its vast network of spies and saboteurs seemed oblivious about the missiles.

Given the details which have now been shared by Iran, its array of hypersonic missiles (as opposed to ballistic missiles) appears to have made a huge difference in the conflict.

Ballistic missiles, fired by rockets, go high into space before releasing warheads — but are detected faster by radar equipment. On the other hand, hypersonic surface-to-surface missiles, with speeds reaching as high as a mind-blowing Mach 15 — 15 times the speed of sound — allow radar and other interceptors far less time to detect the incoming missiles.

Military censorship and the nature of the conflict have made it difficult to say with certainty about the extent of damage inflicted by the missiles. Yet the odd piece of video evidence and the sketchy details available from state agencies and the military on either side indicate the damage has been substantial.

Now, the longer the conflict continues, the more tempting it will become for Israel to use the nuclear warheads it is said to have.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Israel’s nuclear warheads are capable of being delivered anywhere within a maximum radius of 4,500 km by its F-15, F-161 and F-35I ‘Adir’ aircraft, its 50 land-based Jericho II and III missiles, and about 20 Popeye Turbo cruise missiles, which are launched from submarines.

While Israel has never confirmed or denied that it has nuclear weapons, speculation puts their number anywhere between 90 and 400.

This is another reason why pressure for US military intervention is mounting. The US cannot afford to allow Israel to use nuclear weapons — which, on paper, it does not have. For Trump is beholden to the Israeli lobby — Zionists, evangelical Christians and the wealthy Jewish elite who are the kingmakers in American politics. They can't be seen to get their hands dirty or reveal any bias in America's non-proliferation policy.

But what if Iran has more surprises up its sleeves?