Iran gets a breather, but for how long?

Reports that US President Donald Trump has backed off for the time being from ordering a military strike on Iran has led to a lull in the build-up to a war. The US president, these reports claim, is satisfied that the situation in Iran is returning to near-normal, that protests are petering off and that Iran has conveyed that it will not execute arrested protesters. The ‘Peace President’, by all accounts, would be happy to leave Iran alone for the time being.

However, the threat to Iran is both real and alive. The US has been planning a regime change for over 20 years, and is unlikely to stop now, experts believe. It will, therefore, look for the next opportunity while gloating over the economic misery suffered by Iranians owing to US-imposed sanctions. The notoriously unpredictable US president may be provoked into ordering a strike by the slightest of justifications offered to the Oval Office.

Reports also say the US aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln is strategically placed in the region and that Israel could be preparing to strike Iran on its own, provoking Iran into retaliation and forcing the US to join in the conflict.

Trump informed Iran that he did not intend to attack, according to Iran’s envoy to Pakistan Reza Amiri Moghadam, as reported by Pakistani media outlet Dawn. Around the same time, Turkiye’s foreign minister has called for dialogue to the crisis in Iran, saying: “We absolutely want problems to be resolved through dialogue”.

Iran’s foreign ‍minister Abbas Araghchi, in a phone conversation with his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, reiterated the pledge to “firmly defend” Iran’s borders.

Iranian envoy to India Mohammad Fathali told media in New Delhi that peaceful protests by traders and shopkeepers were disrupted by a few "rioters" and groups aided by foreign forces. Iranians did not want any foreign interference and could solve their problems on their own. Indian and other foreign students were safe, he said, and there was no report of any move to evacuate the students from Iran by the Indian government.

What has kept experts on their toes are reports in Israeli media that Israel's intelligence agency Mossad was present "in the field". An Israeli TV channel also reported that a foreign power was providing arms to the protesters.

Reports say that Israel, unhappy about the US president’s last-minute decision to step back from the planned attack, may decide to strike on its own. Iran appears to be aware of the possibility of such a move and Iranian official media has aired details of Israel’s nuclear facilities, in what is seen as a veiled warning to Tel Aviv not to escalate the situation further.

Experts believe there are signs that though caught by surprise by the violent protests, the Iranian regime has retained its control over the state and the security agencies. There are no visible takers for the US president’s call for Iranians to take over institutions and an open call to the Iranian armed forces to stage a coup. There are no visible cracks in the government and Iran, by all accounts, is not yet on the brink of collapse, as the US and Israel had hoped.

President Trump had stated on 2 January that the US was "ready and loaded" if Iran cracked down on protesters. The crackdown did take place and the US president sent out a message that "help is on the way". The U-turn, therefore, has surprised both friends and enemies of Iran. Nobody is ruling out a US strike yet and would prefer to wait and watch. Whether it would be a symbolic and limited strike or all-out war is something nobody is betting on yet.

The only certainty is that sanctions and attempts to foment civic unrest in Iran will continue. The US and the West will continue to pile on the pressure, and Iran can only look for a lull before the next storm, unless it manages to somehow expedite its nuclear programme, badly hit by the US strikes in June 2025, and secure the N-bomb.