Iran’s Hormuz gamble: Can Tehran force Trump to capitulate?

Iran’s leaders believe time is on their side in the standoff with the United States, betting that military pressure and control of the Strait of Hormuz will eventually force US President Donald Trump to accept Tehran’s terms over the crucial global energy route.

They point to dwindling US stockpiles of key weapons, including advanced missile interceptors; the war’s unpopularity among Americans; and persistently high fuel and other prices ahead of the US congressional elections in November. They also calculate that reopening the strait by force would be costly and could require American ground troops, while their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the conflict and disrupt another major trade route.

By that logic, Trump will ultimately have little choice but to capitulate. But the strategy is a risky one. Trump points to US strikes that have decimated Iran’s top leadership, navy and air force, while alternating between threats of escalation and claims that talks are progressing. Iran’s economy has been battered, partly by a US blockade, and mass anti-government protests that erupted months ago could return.

Iran’s leaders also have a reminder of how unpredictable wars can be in Trump’s own “short-term excursion” to West Asia, which has already bogged down.

Iran says it is close to a deal with Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz, which runs between the two countries. Tehran says there are no direct negotiations with Washington, but any agreement would be conditional on the US lifting its blockade and therefore require Trump’s approval.

It remains unclear whether Iran would be allowed to charge fees. But such an arrangement would formalise Tehran’s control over what was an open international waterway before the war and through which about a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas passed.

Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said Iran’s effective control of the strait had given it leverage over the US and regional countries that could help guarantee its security. “More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management and sovereignty over the strait,” he said by phone from Tehran.

Formal control over even part of the waterway would represent a major Iranian victory and a setback for the US, which has yet to achieve some of its shifting objectives in the war. It could also undermine global norms on freedom of navigation by establishing a precedent that countries can shut down major trade chokepoints at will.

China, which buys Iranian oil and has influence with Tehran, said as recently as May that “normal and safe passage” through the strait should be restored.

To borrow a phrase from Trump’s own geopolitical thinking, Iran believes it holds the cards. “They started the war, but its end was never with them. We always decide for ourselves when it ends,” Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator, posted on social media. “Iran is going after the enemy’s defeat — not an agreement.”

He said a surprise Iranian attack on Jordan in July had “compensated” for a fall in oil prices, contributing to the collapse of an interim agreement reached in June. That deal had offered Iran significant concessions, including a US waiver allowing it to sell oil internationally and a promise of broader sanctions relief.

Iran has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz will not return to being an open waterway and that it will continue attacking ships attempting to transit without its permission. Its joint military command has called the issue an “unbreakable red line”.

“For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic lever for deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping the security rules in the Persian Gulf,” said Tehran-based security analyst Mostafa Najafi.

That makes ending the war more difficult and could further complicate the long-running dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme.

“The atomic issue, because of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, has been pushed to the side, and in reality, that is in Iran’s interests,” said Iran-based analyst Rahman Ghahremanpour. Control of the strait, he added, would give Tehran additional leverage if nuclear talks resume.

The war’s economic fallout has spread worldwide but has been particularly severe in Iran. US and Israeli strikes have battered its industrial base, while the US blockade has sharply curtailed oil exports. Iranians are facing triple-digit food inflation, while Trump has repeatedly threatened major strikes on civilian infrastructure, including water and electricity facilities.

In December, a currency crisis triggered some of the largest anti-government protests in the 47-year history of the Islamic Republic. Authorities responded with a bloody crackdown in which thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained.

Many Iranians, including people close to moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian, fear Tehran could push its strategy too far. Mohammad Javad Zarif, who as foreign minister helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal, wrote recently that Iran’s wartime achievements had opened “an exceptional window for diplomacy”. But he warned that failure to reach a deal soon would make economic recovery difficult and that internal unrest or renewed aggression, particularly after the US elections, could not be ruled out.

The war has already defied expectations. After the first wave of US and Israeli airstrikes on 28 February killed Iran’s supreme leader and other senior officials, Trump suggested the conflict would end within weeks. Instead, the war has emboldened Iran’s leaders and mobilised their supporters. Tehran is using the strait “to show that it has not been defeated,” Ghahremanpour said. “It can increase its legitimacy at home.”

But the strategy could also backfire. Iran’s resilience has limits, and an economic collapse could trigger renewed unrest. “Iran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America,” Ghahremanpour said.

Davari, however, believes Tehran can withstand the pressure for now. “It’s unlikely, despite the difficulties of the economic situation, that Iran will retreat from its positions,” he said.

Reported by Joseph Krauss and Amir-Hussein Radjy, AP