Israel post-poll: Arabs may help elect the king but may not be allowed into the palace

• A huge 80 per cent turnout of Arab voters have helped Arab parties secure 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset

• Neither the ruling coalition led by Netanyahu (53) nor the Eisenkot-led Opposition (48) have the required 61 seats

• With both the blocs against seeking Arab support, a fresh election appears more than likely

“Israel's future depends on its Arab citizens,” was the headline of a commentary by Gideon Levy in Haaretz after the election results came out for the election to the 120-member Knesset, the Israeli parliament. “The future of Israel now depends on its Arab citizens and on the attitude of its Jewish citizens toward its Arab ones,” wrote Levy, adding, “The Arab citizens of Israel have become, for the first time in their history, a part of the state of Israel.”

Levy argued that the election created an anti-Netanyahu majority in the Knesset and that majority is only possible if Arab parties are counted as legitimate political actors. Even Jewish opposition politicians fiercely opposed to Netanyahu’s leadership are resisting reliance on Arab parties even when their combined numbers would allow a government to be formed. In a later column, Levy criticised the reluctance of anti-Netanyahu parties to depend on Arab support.

The broad consensus in the Israeli media is that the election has produced two simultaneous stories: a) a historic Arab political breakthrough and b) a constitutional and political deadlock despite that breakthrough. Several Israeli commentators argue that the most important result was not Likud's performance or Eisenkot's rise, but the Arab turnout surge. The Jerusalem Post called the turnout figures "the real story" of the election, noting that Arab participation rose from about 53 per cent in 2022 to roughly 77 per cent in 2026, pushing Arab representation from 10 seats to 19 seats. The Times of Israel similarly described the election as a "historic surge in Arab voter turnout" that put Arab-majority parties in a position to determine who governs Israel.

Reuters reported that Arab voters were mobilised by frustration with Netanyahu's government, especially issues of crime, discrimination, and the influence of far-right ministers. Most commentators seem to agree that domestic issues and not Israel’s war on Gaza triggered the surge in voting by Arabs, who constitute 21 per cent of Israel’s population but 17 per cent of the voters because of a more youthful population than Jewish families. The Arabs in Israel are concerned with rise in crime and violence in Arab towns and want a greater role in political decision-making. Reuters quoted Joint List leader Yousef Jabareen saying his party wanted to use its strength to remove Netanyahu and improve equality for Arab citizens. The Times of Israel reported that many voters explicitly said they turned out because they saw the current government as uniquely hostile to their community.

With neither the bloc led by Netanyahu (53 seats) nor the Opposition bloc (48 seats) gaining the required 61 seats for a majority, the Arab parties with 19 seats are said to hold the balance of power. The Al Jazeera, however, quoted several analysts striking notes of caution. Former ambassador Daniel Shek called the Arab vote the most important phenomenon of the election but noted that Israeli politics still struggles to treat Arab parties as legitimate coalition partners. Palestinian scholar Honaida Ghanam argued there exists an informal political veto against Arab participation, adding that electoral success does not automatically translate into power. They can help elect the king, but may not be allowed into the palace.

Arithmetically the easiest coalition is the opposition bloc led by Eisenkot aligning with Arab parties, giving the coalition 67 seats. However, Opposition bloc leaders like Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman campaigned against depending on Arab support to form the government. Seeking Arab support is a taboo that the Jewish parties have not been able to overcome. However, this obstacle can be overcome if Arab parties decide to lend outside support to the government and abstain on key votes.

Another possibility being discussed in the Israeli media is a national unity government. A combination of the hardliners in the Netanyahu Bloc and centrists in the Opposition bloc may come together to form the government, suggest some commentators. This is seen as more realistic than any Jewish-Arab coalition. However, Netanyahu remains a deeply divisive figure and most Opposition leaders campaigned against him.

With Netanyahu, who has accused Arab parties of stealing the election, and sections of the Opposition too refusing to sit with Arab parties, several analysts see another election as a way forward to break the deadlock. Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, quoted by both The Jerusalem Post and The Times of Israel asserted that while the Arab electorate has demanded inclusion, Israel’s political system is not yet ready or willing to grant that inclusion. The huge Arab turnout is evidence that Arab citizens are engaging with Israeli democracy on an unprecedented scale, but is the Jewish political establishment prepared to treat them as full governing partners, is the question.