NATO, Russia edge closer to standoff over airspace incursions

NATO and Russia have entered another turbulent phase in their already fraught relationship, this time over the skies of Eastern Europe. In the space of just two weeks, drones and fighter jets linked to Moscow have been reported inside NATO territory, jolting Europe into a renewed debate over the risks of escalation.

The incidents forced the alliance to issue one of its sharpest warnings on Tuesday to Russia since the start of the Ukraine war, even as Moscow flatly denied any wrongdoing and accused its critics of manufacturing hysteria.

The first incident took place on 10 September, when Polish forces shot down Russian drones that strayed across the border. It was the first direct confrontation between NATO and Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 — a moment that sent shockwaves across Europe.

Just four days later, Estonia reported an even more provocative episode: three Russian fighter jets entered its airspace for 12 minutes without authorisation.

For frontline states like Poland and Estonia, both staunch NATO members, these were not technical mishaps but deliberate provocations. Estonia quickly requested formal consultations under Article 4 of NATO’s founding treaty, which mandates collective discussions whenever a member feels its security or territorial integrity is under threat.

Warsaw, meanwhile, hardened its posture dramatically. Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Poland would “without discussion” shoot down any flying object violating its territory in the future — a stance that signals growing impatience with Russian probes.

In Brussels, NATO issued a carefully calibrated but stern statement: “Russia should be in no doubt: NATO and Allies will employ, in accordance with international law, all necessary military and non-military tools to defend ourselves and deter all threats from all directions.” The alliance added that it would “continue to respond in the manner, timing, and domain of our choosing”, underlining its readiness to act while preserving strategic ambiguity.

The statement also reaffirmed NATO’s bedrock commitment under Article 5: that an attack on one member constitutes an attack on all. While NATO refrained from detailing specific countermeasures, the warning carried unmistakable weight. With 32 members, including nuclear-armed powers like the United States, Britain, and France, NATO’s credibility rests on its ability to deter precisely the kind of border-testing tactics Russia has long employed.

Moscow, however, has responded with a mixture of denial, dismissal, and counter-accusations. Regarding Estonia’s report, Russia insisted no fighter jets had entered the Baltic country’s airspace, rejecting the allegations outright. At the United Nations, Russia’s deputy ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy went further, accusing NATO members of staging a “theater of the absurd” and claiming there was “no evidence” of incursions.

When it came to Poland’s shoot-down of drones, the Kremlin dismissed Warsaw’s statements as “nothing new” — suggesting that NATO states have exaggerated or misrepresented such incidents for political effect. Russian officials framed the uproar as Western scaremongering designed to escalate tensions, while portraying Moscow as the reasonable actor calling for “serious discussions” about European security.

The controversy comes at a precarious moment in the war. Russia has intensified long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks, while NATO has boosted its air policing missions across the eastern flank. The alliance has deployed additional troops, aircraft, and missile defense systems in Poland and the Baltic states since 2022, but the recent breaches have underscored lingering doubts about whether deterrence is robust enough.

For NATO, the challenge is balancing firmness with caution. Too weak a response risks emboldening Russia; too aggressive a stance could risk escalation into direct conflict. Poland’s uncompromising position highlights a growing divide within the alliance: frontline states demand tougher action, while others urge restraint to avoid spiraling tensions.

For now, NATO’s posture remains one of deterrence without direct confrontation. The message is clear: borders matter, and violations will not go unanswered. Yet the incidents in Poland and Estonia demonstrate how quickly accidents, provocations, or even miscalculations could drag NATO and Russia into a direct clash.

As debris from downed drones smolders in Polish fields and radar traces of fighter jets flicker over Estonian skies, Europe is reminded that the front line of the Ukraine war is not limited to Ukraine itself. The air above NATO territory is becoming a new testing ground — and each breach tightens the perilous line between deterrence and escalation.

With AP/PTI inputs