Monsoon likely to cover most parts of northwest India by 25 June: IMD

The southwest monsoon, which regained momentum this week, is expected to cover most parts of northwest India, including Delhi, by 25 June, well ahead of the usual dates, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

The primary rain-bearing system reached Kerala on 24 May, marking its earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it arrived on 23 May.

Aided by strong low-pressure systems over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, the monsoon advanced quickly over the next few days, covering parts up to central Maharashtra, including Mumbai, and the entire northeast by 29 May.

However, it stalled from 28-29 May until 10-11 June before becoming active again.

The lack of rainfall since early June led to a sharp rise in temperatures, triggering heatwave conditions across large parts of northwest and central India since 8-9 June.

According to the IMD’s extended range forecast, the monsoon is now likely to cover the remaining parts of central and eastern India and some areas of northwest India by 18 June.

It is expected to advance over most of northwest India between 19 June and 25 June.

An IMD official said the system is likely to reach Delhi by 22-23 June, ahead of the normal onset date of 27 June.

Meteorologists say the date of monsoon onset does not directly correlate with the total seasonal rainfall. An early or delayed arrival in Kerala or Mumbai does not necessarily indicate similar progress in other parts of the country.

They say the monsoon is influenced by complex global, regional and local factors, marked by significant variability.

In May, the IMD forecast that India is likely to receive 106 per cent of the long-period average rainfall of 87 cm during the June-September monsoon season.

Rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of this 50-year average is considered “normal”.

Above-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country, except Ladakh, adjoining areas of Himachal Pradesh, the northeast, and some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha.

Some isolated areas in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may record below-normal rainfall.

The monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture sector, which supports the livelihood of around 42 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the GDP.

It also plays a key role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation.