Tamil Nadu: Sword of delimitation hangs over the South

What did Union home minister Amit Shah mean when he said at the inauguration of BJP party offices in Coimbatore, Tiruvannamalai and Ramanathapuram on 26 February that the southern states would not lose a single seat in Parliament after the delimitation of constituencies?

The southern states smell a rat, though not all are as vocal as Tamil Nadu chief minister M.K. Stalin, who is leading the pushback. The unexpressed fear is that Shah may be planning another constitutional ambush à la Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019.

At an all-party meeting in Chennai on 5 March, Stalin gave voice to the southern states’ angst. “The sword of delimitation is hanging over South India,” he said in his opening remarks. Reducing parliamentary, legislative and Rajya Sabha seats based on population would be an act of “irreversible justice” that punished the very states that are “successfully implementing population control measures and contributing significantly to national development”.

While former minister D. Jayakumar said the AIADMK has “always stood against delimitation based on population and we are still standing for the same cause”, VCK leader Thol Thirumavalavan spoke in support of delimitation, adding that a “status quo should continue based on 1971 Census”.

Actor-turned-politician Kamal Haasan believes the BJP “wants to create Hindia” (referring to the NEP’s three-language formula) while Shah has accused Stalin of “lying” and needlessly making delimitation an issue in view of assembly elections due in April-May next year.

The state-wise allocation of seats in Parliament was frozen for 25 years in 1976 when Mrs India Gandhi was prime minister. With the alarming growth in population, it felt tricky — even risky — to have delimitation of constituencies after every decennial census. Two-and-a-half decades seemed like enough time to stabilise the population.

In 2001, the NDA government under Atal Bihari Vajpayee decided to extend the freeze on delimitation for another 25 years.

By 2001, the southern states had got their act together and been successful in stabilising the population. The BIMARU states in the north (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, UP) however, were still witnessing an exponential growth in population.

The proposed census of 2021 would, it was hoped, provide a clearer picture. The Modi government skipped the census in 2021 on the pretext of the pandemic — the first time India missed the exercise since it was started in 1881. The law mandates delimitation after each census, so the simplest solution would be to defer it until 2031, when the next census is expected to take place.

Signals from New Delhi indicate that the government will not wait until then, and has something else in mind. With the prime minister and home minister reluctant to clear the air, Tamil Nadu’s chief minister has raised the alarm.

DMK leaders are making no attempt to hide their apprehension. “Delimitation has been uppermost in the minds of people in the southern states for the past 8–10 years,” points out Tamil Nadu IT minister P.T.R. Thiagarajan. “And with [the] 2026 [elections] round the corner, it is obvious that concerns… would be deeper.”

The fact that Modi and Shah have not ruled out the exercise next year is a worry, and in the absence of any clarifications, Shah’s assurance that the southern states have nothing to fear has had exactly the opposite effect.

Given that the BIMARU states have failed to rein in their populations, “the short-term solution is to extend the freeze for 25 more years and hope that by 2050, the states in the cow belt will catch up and the population across the country will stabilise,” suggests Thiagarajan.

But with Narendra Modi turning 75 in September this year (when the party’s ‘no ticket after 75’ rule technically kicks in), and the new Parliament building designed to accommodate more members (total seating capacity: 1,272; Lok Sabha: 888; Rajya Sabha: 384), there is a certain edge to fears that the BJP is up to something nasty.

DMK leaders have been wary of publicly addressing the issue. While Stalin half-jokingly advised newlyweds to have as many children as possible, a similar sentiment was echoed by Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu.

Thiagarajan, however, offers a different perspective. Speaking to Karan Thapar on The Interview, he hinted that reducing the political representation of southern states, particularly Tamil Nadu, would be disastrous.

Over the past several decades, southern states, including Tamil Nadu, have outpaced others in economic growth, job creation and GDP contribution. Meanwhile, the overpopulated northern states have received a disproportionate share of tax devolution and central grants. “When Mr Modi came to power, Uttar Pradesh received Rs 1.92 for every rupee allocated to Tamil Nadu. Over the last 10 years, UP’s share has more than doubled to over Rs 4 for every rupee going to TN,” Thiagarajan said.

There is no evidence that Central assistance and higher allocations have helped Uttar Pradesh improve. However, by withholding support from the southern states — particularly Tamil Nadu — on grounds of equity, their growth has been stifled.

“I have argued before successive Finance Commissions that giving more funds to the laggard states is no solution, Instead, they need to prioritise health and education, so that they catch up with the more developed states,” he added. “At one point, Tamil Nadu accounted for 8 per cent of the country’s population, contributed 8 per cent to the GDP and received 8 per cent — or slightly less — in Central grants and taxes,” he claimed.

“Now, Tamil Nadu has only 6 per cent of the population, contributes 10–12 per cent of the GDP, but receives just 4 per cent of central grants, assistance and taxes. Despite outperforming others, our voice goes unheard in New Delhi, and now they’re even threatening to reduce our political representation!”

Asked if New Delhi is pushing southern states toward secession, Thiagarajan avoided a direct answer. “Everyone enters public life to improve the country and make people happier and more prosperous. They must follow the mission statement that doctors adhere to: ‘Do No Harm’.”

The five southern states — Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Kerala (excluding Puducherry) — hold 129 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, accounting for 24 per cent of the total. A Times of India report estimated that a delimitation exercise next year could reduce the South’s representation to just 19 per cent. These projections are adding to the prevailing confusion, which is likely to continue unless the home minister comes clean.