Will President Trump prefer to be impeached or choose to resign?

The results of the US midterm elections have been dramatic. Everybody expected the Democrats to win a majority in the House, but nobody anticipated the scale of their victory. The Senate race was considered 'tight' until the last moment, and few predicted that the Democrats would take control of the Senate as well, and with such ease. The manner in which the Republicans have lost has shocked even the most loyal Trump supporters.

Republicans lost decisively in states that were considered deeply red, including Texas, North and South Carolina, Alaska and even Kansas, where the Senate seat had been held by Republicans for the past 94 years. The question for the GOP now is how to move forward with Trump. If he stays in the White House for another two years, a Democratic victory in the 2028 presidential election will appear more likely, if not inevitable.

Donald Trump's second term as president had begun in 2024 with Republicans controlling both the House and the Senate. He also had the advantage of a conservative Supreme Court, which gave him considerable leverage. Now that Republicans have lost control of Congress, analysts expect more investigations, greater legislative gridlock and increased reliance by Trump on vetoes and executive action. With Democrats, humiliated and frustrated by Trump over the past two years, seemingly in no mood to forgive and forget, the next two years could be ugly.

The most dramatic consequence of the US midterm elections, some analysts believe, could actually be Trump's resignation before his term ends. This may not happen immediately, and his completing the full term is by no means improbable. He does not have to resign simply because Republicans have lost control of Congress.

However, while talk of President Trump's resignation may appear premature and even rash, the possibility is already being discussed. The argument is that the Republican Party may want him to step down as early as possible, allowing vice-president J.D. Vance to repair the damage before the next presidential election.

What are Trump's options? He is being squarely blamed for the loss of control of Congress. Even the most loyal Trump supporters, who believed that while Democrats might narrowly win the House, Republicans would retain their majority in the Senate, are in a state of shock. The Democrats have won 54 seats in the Senate at the time of writing and may not have the 67 seats, or a two-thirds majority, required to do pretty much what they like. However, with comfortable majorities in both chambers, Democrats are certain to make life very difficult for the president.

Trump being Trump, remains nonchalant, admitting only that he is somewhat surprised by the result. The outcome, he says, will make no difference to him or the White House. He will continue to pursue his policies. Even the war against Iran is 'unfinished business', and he intends to see it through. He has already threatened to veto anything Congress may throw at him, using his presidential powers to have his way. Given half a chance, there is little doubt about what he will do. Yet there is a catch.

The Republican Party, already shocked by the ease with which Democrats have secured majorities in both Houses, will now be looking towards 2028. Trump's utility to the party may well have run its course, with the leadership weighing the pros and cons of allowing him to continue. The price of allowing him to remain president for another two years could be an even more painful electoral reckoning in 2028. Ordinarily, Trump is unlikely to resign. But he may consider the option if the alternative is facing prison.

There is little doubt that Democrats in the US Congress will want to investigate the president and his business dealings. He has been accused of promoting his family's business interests and manipulating stock prices while taking advantage of his position as president.

Trump has also made no secret of his family's involvement in cryptocurrency. He has publicly accepted a presidential aircraft as a gift from Qatar, while his real-estate business and golf courses have reportedly benefited from patronage.

His connections with Jeffrey Epstein, along with multiple allegations of rape and sexual misconduct, are also likely to resurface. Democrats will be keen to investigate and embarrass the president, even if their efforts fail to uncover sufficient evidence to establish criminal wrongdoing.

This will leave the Republicans bruised. Analysts are already writing the political obituary of Vance, who had fancied his chances of becoming the Republican presidential nominee in 2028. He may well choose to continue as vice-president for the next two years and demonstrate his loyalty to the president. Whether that will improve his chances of securing the nomination in 2028 remains to be seen.

One option being suggested by some analysts is to persuade Trump to resign in return for a presidential pardon from Vance after he takes office. Trump could then avoid a prison term even if convicted, while the Republican Party would get another opportunity to contest the 2028 presidential election on a cleaner slate, without the baggage of 'Trumpism' weighing it down. The vice-president, too, might find it more appealing to leave office as president of the United States.

Richard Nixon remains the only US president to have resigned after it became clear that he was likely to be impeached over the Watergate scandal. Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 but acquitted by the Senate and completed his term.

Trump was impeached twice, in 2019 and 2021, but was acquitted by the Senate on both occasions. Nixon was granted a full and unconditional pardon by Gerald Ford in 1974 for offences he might have committed while president. He remains the only former US president to have received a presidential pardon.