How lonely it is to be Israel

For decades, Israel’s greatest strategic asset was not its army, nuclear capability or intelligence services. It was the extraordinary political support it enjoyed in the United States. Presidents of both parties treated Israel’s security as a permanent American commitment. Congress supplied weapons, money and diplomatic protection with little hesitation. Even when disagreements arose, the relationship remained secure because Israel enjoyed broad support among Americans.

That foundation is now cracking, and Benjamin Netanyahu bears the greatest responsibility. The change did not begin with the Gaza war. Years of occupation, settlement expansion and the disappearance of any credible political path for Palestinians had already damaged Israel’s image. But Gaza accelerated the transformation. The enormous scale of war crimes, displacement, starvation and destruction has changed how millions around the world see Israel.

Netanyahu responded to the Hamas attack of 7 October with a war that went far beyond any reasonable claim of military necessity. Entire neighbourhoods were destroyed. Families were buried under rubble. Hospitals, schools and civilian infrastructure were devastated. Hunger became a weapon of war. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu over war crimes and crimes against humanity.

This is the Israel younger Americans have been watching. The polls show how dramatic the change is. A 2018 Gallup poll found 64 per cent of Americans sympathised more with Israelis and only 19 per cent with Palestinians. By 2022, that gap had narrowed to 55 per cent and 26 per cent, respectively. In 2023, 54 per cent and 31 per cent. By 2025, 46 per cent and 33 per cent. Then the historic reversal, the first since 2001: in Gallup’s 2026 survey, only 36 per cent sympathise more with Israelis and 41 per cent with Palestinians.

The generational change is even more alarming for Israel. Among Americans aged 18 to 34, 53 per cent now sympathise more with Palestinians and only 23 per cent with Israelis. Among Democrats, the figures are 65 per cent for Palestinians and 17 per cent for Israelis. Even Republican sympathy for Israelis has fallen from 80 per cent in 2024 to 70 per cent in 2026. At the same time, 57 per cent of Americans support the establishment of an independent Palestinian State.

Pew Research Center confirms the same trend through different questions. In 2022, 55 per cent of Americans viewed Israel favourably and 42 per cent unfavourably. By 2025, 53 per cent viewed Israel unfavourably; in 2026, 60 per cent. Netanyahu fares even worse: 59 per cent of Americans have little or no confidence in him on world affairs. Among Democrats the figure is 76 per cent. More significantly for Israel’s future, 57 per cent of Republicans aged 18 to 49 now view Israel unfavourably.

Gallup and Pew use different questions and methodologies, yet they reveal the same transformation. Israel is losing the American public, and it is losing younger Americans rapidly. This matters more than no votes at the United Nations or demonstrations in European capitals. Israel can survive criticism from Europe and condemnation from the Global South, but it cannot replace the United States.

For decades, Washington has provided Israel not only weapons and financial assistance but extraordinary diplomatic protection. While official US figures have historically put cumulative bilateral assistance above $130 billion in nominal terms, inflation-adjusted estimates place total American aid at more than $300 billion, including well over $200 billion in military assistance. Israel is the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid since the Second World War.

The US has also used its veto around 50 times to block Security Council action involving Israel and the Palestinian question. Since the Gaza war began in October 2023, Washington has cast six vetoes on Gaza-related Security Council measures. In June and September 2025, the isolation was extraordinary: 14 members of the Security Council supported ceasefire resolutions while the US alone voted against them. American diplomatic power effectively prevented their adoption.

The assumption that Washington would stand behind Israel in any major confrontation has been central to Israeli security; Netanyahu may have finally gambled it away.

His wars did not remain confined to Gaza. Violence and dispossession intensified in the West Bank. Israeli military operations expanded in Lebanon. Then came the war against Iran, a conflict Netanyahu had advocated for years. Instead of reducing threats around Israel, his strategy has widened the battlefield. He has tried to convince Israelis that ‘forever wars’ are necessary for survival, but that line has now become one of the greatest threats to Israel’s long-term security.

American foreign policy will not change overnight. Established institutions and lobbying networks remain powerful. But democratic governments cannot remain permanently insulated from public opinion. Younger Americans will eventually become senators, members of Congress, officials from the administration and voters deciding presidential elections. If their understanding of Israel has been shaped primarily by Gaza, occupation, settler violence and regional war, the consequences for the alliance will be profound.

Already more lawmakers are challenging arms transfers. More Democrats are distancing themselves from Netanyahu. More candidates are questioning unconditional American support. The political cost of criticising Israel is decreasing and conversely the cost of defending Netanyahu’s wars is rising.

Future US governments may continue supporting Israel’s existence and legitimate security needs while refusing to finance occupation, settlement expansion and repeated wars. Military assistance could become conditional. Arms transfers could face restrictions. Diplomatic protection could weaken. Washington could become much more willing to pressure Israel to accept Palestinian statehood.

The loss of support is also global. Pew’s 2026 survey across 36 countries found a median of 67 per cent holding an unfavourable opinion of Israel, against only 25 per cent with a favourable view. Unfavourable opinion reached 69 per cent in Britain, 73 per cent in Germany, 75 per cent in Italy, 76 per cent in the Netherlands and 78 per cent in Spain and Sweden.

Israel is, therefore, losing support not only among its traditional critics but in countries that have been important diplomatic, economic and military partners. Yet the decline of support in the US is uniquely dangerous because no other country has backed Israel like the US.

The recent defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan is also significant for Israel. These are major Muslim powers. Turkey is a NATO member and Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons. Their growing security cooperation is a sign that the region is looking for greater strategic autonomy and new ways of confronting Israel.

For generations, Israel could count on the US to stand behind it whatever happened in West Asia. But that ground may have slipped and Netanyahu will be remembered as the leader who pushed Israel to that point.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More by the author here