Opposition prepares for a fight in Assam

The six-party Asom Sonmilito Morcha (ASM), led by the Congress, is projecting confidence as Assam heads towards the 9 April Assembly elections. This marks a notable shift in the political narrative over the past fortnight, when many observers had predicted a cakewalk for the incumbent BJP.

The change in mood is reflected in Congress leader and Karnataka deputy chief minister D.K. Shivakumar — the party’s senior observer for Assam — claiming that the Congress could secure a two-thirds majority.

So, what has changed in the past 15 days?

The consolidation of a broader Opposition platform — including regional players such as Raijor Dal and Left parties — appears to have gained traction in several pockets. Political observers note that since taking charge of the Pradesh Congress, the party's Lok Sabha deputy leader Gaurav Gogoi has maintained a high degree of strategic discretion on candidate selection, alliance negotiations and campaign positioning. This has, according to observers, unsettled internal detractors such as Bhupen Bora and Debabrata Saikia.

While the Congress has attempted to contain internal dissent, there are indications of unease within the BJP’s ranks. Sections of the party’s old guard are reportedly unhappy with the influx of recent entrants, many of them former Congress leaders. A Guwahati-based journalist described the emerging contest as “Congress versus Congress”, suggesting that factional tensions within the BJP may end up indirectly aiding the Opposition.

The entry of younger, Gen-Z candidates has introduced new themes and expectations into the campaign discourse, presenting challenges for chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s campaign messaging. In a video that circulated widely online, Sarma appeared uncomfortable when asked to respond to opposition leader Akhil Gogoi describing him as “Hitler”. The chief minister was seen attempting to emphasise his role in unifying Assam before moving on with his campaign schedule.

Sections of the local business community are also seen as reassessing their political preferences. Some traders and contractors have reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with what they perceive as the concentration of major contracts among a limited set of firms seen as close to the current dispensation. The Congress has sought to tap into this sentiment by promising to curb alleged 'syndicate' practices and widen access to public works department (PWD) and Panchayat contracts for smaller local players.

Traditionally, the contractor lobby has tended to align with the ruling party to ensure continuity in project flows and payments linked to public infrastructure development such as roads, bridges and urban projects. The BJP’s manifesto promise of Rs 5 lakh crore in investments is being viewed by many contractors as a significant incentive, particularly for those already integrated into the present system of project allocation under the Sarma government.

A study by the Reporters’ Collective published in December 2025 found that between 2022 and 2024 the BJP received Rs 77.63 crore in cheque and electronic donations from contributors in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Tripura.

According to the study, at least 54.89 per cent of these contributions came from individuals or companies that had received government contracts or regulatory clearances from either state governments or Union government agencies. In Assam specifically, the study reported that 52.34 per cent of such funds in FY 2023-24 came from donors linked to government contracts or clearances, while the figure stood at 64.48 per cent in FY 2022-23.

Against this backdrop, the Congress-led alliance appears to have found renewed motivation to mount a competitive challenge in the state, turning what was initially seen as a one-sided contest into a more closely watched electoral battle.

Sourabh Sen is a Kolkata-based independent writer and commentator on politics, human rights and foreign affairs. More of his writing may be read here