The race to a two-thirds majority 

When Sanjay Raut, the Shiv Sena (UBT) MP and spokesperson, posted on social media this week that he had information that Maharashtra MPs would be receiving ‘an advance of Rs 15 crore’ the same night, he was merely confirming the buzz that several SS(UBT) MPs in the Lok Sabha were on the verge of joining the ruling NDA coalition. ‘Apna Sapna, Money, Money,’ he added sarcastically.

The Bharatiya Janata Party is making no bones about its role in prompting elected Members of Parliament to desert the Opposition. Even those who were fierce and outspoken critics of the BJP, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah in and out of Parliament, like Saayoni Ghosh of Trinamool Congress, are also being welcomed with open arms. A bitter Trinamool Congress MP and one of the few Mamata Banerjee loyalists left, Kirti Azad, said that TMC rebels were meeting BJP MP Nishikant Dubey to finalise their conditions for switching their loyalty. The police are manning the gates outside as BJP leaders are sitting with the rebels inside, he added.

The ‘rebels’ confirmed that they had held a meeting with union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who was BJP in-charge of West Bengal assembly election, at the union minister’s residence in New Delhi. From there they moved together to the residence of Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, posed for a photograph with him and handed over a letter stating their resolve to support the NDA and the ‘visionary leadership’ of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and union home minister Amit Shah.

The BJP is going all out to shore up its numbers in both the Rajya Sabha and the Lok Sabha — and is no mood to wait for another election to press ahead with its agenda. The BJP had received a rude jolt in June 2024 when it won 240 seats in the Lok Sabha and was stopped short of a simple majority in the lower house.

The changes it wants in the law require a two-thirds majority in both Houses of Parliament, and the party, it appears, has decided after its capture of Bengal — and the implosion of the TMC in its wake — that it’s now time to shoot for a two-thirds majority ahead of another election. With the latest rebellion of 20 Trinamool Congress MPs, the government’s active voting strength is up to 312 while it needs to secure the support of 361 MPs in the Lok Sabha to push through constitutional amendments like the proposed One Nation One Election Bill or the Delimitation Bill. 

A single nation-wide election in five-year cycles, the BJP believes, will keep it permanently in office.

The cycle of  allurement and/ or coercion is unlikely to stop with Trinamool Congress or Shiv Sena (UBT) legislators. 

The latest accounts submitted by political parties to the Election Commission of India show that the BJP, with Rs 10,000 crore in donations, is richer by far than all the other national and regional parties put together.

It explains the BJP’s ability to throw limitless cash in elections — on which there is no leg

The NDA is set to gain several more seats in the current round of Rajya Sabha elections. It has already won three seats from Madhya Pradesh and hopes to gain three more seats from Jharkhand and Mizoram. With three Trinamool Congress MPs resigning from the Rajya Sabha, the NDA is set to secure all three seats from West Bengal after the bye- elections later this year, taking its tally to 154, nine short of 163 seats and a two-thirds majority in the Upper House.

The NDA’s Rajya Sabha strength may dip by November when 10 MPs from Uttar Pradesh retire, allowing the Samajwadi Party to gain some of the seats with its improved numbers in the state assembly. But what if the BJP succeeds in luring away some of its MPs before the next round? DMK with eight MPs and AAP with three remaining MPs, YSRCP and BJD, with seven and six seats, and one or two smaller parties like MDMK, can go either way in the Rajya Sabha. 

For constitutional amendments the requirement is that two-thirds of the members present and voting actually vote in favour. The second condition is that the total number of MPs present and voting must constitute half the total strength of the House.

The Lok Sabha's total strength is 543 and the halfway mark is 272. While voting on the Delimitation Bill tied to the Women's Reservation Bill, 528 members of the Lok Sabha were resent and voted. So, this condition was met. But the other condition, two-thirds of the MPs present and voting ( two-thirds of 528, ie 352) was not met because only 278 to 298 votes could be marshalled by the government in favour of the Bill. 

So, it is not two-third majority of the total strength that is required. In such a scenario, abstentions also become important. But BJP does not want to leave anything to chance.

In the Lok Sabha, the NDA is still far from the magic figure of 363, but the Opposition better watch out.