The race to a two-thirds majority 

When Sanjay Raut, the Shiv Sena (UBT) MP and spokesperson, posted on social media this week that he had information Maharashtra MPs would be receiving “an advance of Rs 15 crore” that very night, he was merely confirming the buzz that several Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs in the Lok Sabha were on the verge of joining the ruling NDA coalition. “Apna Sapna, Money, Money,” he added sarcastically.

The Bharatiya Janata Party is making no bones about its role in prompting elected Members of Parliament to desert the Opposition. Even those who were among the fiercest and most outspoken critics of the BJP, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, both inside and outside Parliament, such as Trinamool Congress MP Saayoni Ghosh, are being welcomed with open arms.

A bitter Kirti Azad, one of the few Mamata Banerjee loyalists left in the Trinamool Congress parliamentary party, claimed that rebel TMC MPs were meeting BJP MP Nishikant Dubey to finalise the terms of their switch. Police personnel were guarding the gates outside while BJP leaders held discussions with the rebels inside, he alleged.

The rebels themselves confirmed that they had met Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who served as the BJP's in-charge for the West Bengal Assembly election, at his residence in New Delhi. From there, they moved together to the residence of Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla, posed for photographs with him and submitted a letter declaring their support for the NDA and the “visionary leadership” of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

The BJP is going all out to shore up its numbers in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha and appears in no mood to wait for another election before pressing ahead with its agenda. The party suffered a rude jolt in June 2024 when it won 240 seats in the Lok Sabha and fell short of a simple majority on its own.

The legislative changes it seeks require a two-thirds majority in both Houses of Parliament. Following the collapse of the Trinamool Congress and the BJP's capture of Bengal, the party appears to have concluded that the time has come to pursue that two-thirds majority without waiting for another electoral mandate.

With the latest rebellion by 20 Trinamool Congress MPs, the government's active voting strength has risen to 312. It still needs the support of 361 MPs in the Lok Sabha to push through constitutional amendments such as the proposed One Nation One Election Bill or the Delimitation Bill.

A single nationwide election every five years, the BJP believes, would help entrench political stability and strengthen its electoral position.

The cycle of allurement and/or coercion is unlikely to stop with Trinamool Congress or Shiv Sena (UBT) legislators.

The latest accounts submitted by political parties to the Election Commission of India show that the BJP, with more than Rs 10,000 crore in donations, remains financially stronger than all other national and regional parties combined.

That financial muscle helps explain the BJP's ability to spend heavily during elections — where there is no legal cap on party expenditure — and to build expansive party offices across the country.

The NDA is also set to gain additional seats in the current round of Rajya Sabha elections. It has already secured three seats from Madhya Pradesh and hopes to add three more from Jharkhand and Mizoram.

With three Trinamool Congress MPs resigning from the Rajya Sabha, the NDA is expected to secure all three resulting vacancies from West Bengal in the by-elections later this year. That would take its tally in the Upper House to 154, just nine short of the 163 seats required for a two-thirds majority.

The NDA's strength in the Rajya Sabha could dip by November when 10 MPs from Uttar Pradesh retire, potentially allowing the Samajwadi Party to gain some seats on the strength of its improved numbers in the state assembly. But what if the BJP succeeds in attracting some of those MPs before the next round?

The DMK, with eight MPs, the Aam Aadmi Party with its remaining three members, the YSR Congress Party and the Biju Janata Dal with seven and six seats respectively, as well as one or two smaller parties such as the MDMK, could yet prove decisive in the Rajya Sabha.

In the Lok Sabha, the NDA remains some distance from the magic figure of 363. But the Opposition would do well to keep looking over its shoulder.