Split wide open: NDA’s seat-sharing dilemma in Bihar

Appearances can be deceptive. Notwithstanding the bonhomie on display between chief minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, tensions are running high between the BJP and JD(U). The MLAs of both parties are on edge, knowing they are going to be axed in favour of fresh faces.

In an exclusive interview with NDTV on 16 September, Union minister and LJP (RV) chief Chirag Paswan claimed that talks on seat-sharing are yet to be held in the NDA. That did not prevent Nitish Kumar from announcing unilaterally that Santosh Kumar Nirala would be NDA’s candidate from Rajpur reserved constituency in Buxar. The BJP retaliated by announcing that Pramod Kumar would be the NDA candidate from Motihari in East Champaran. A house divided?

And that’s not all. Both Chirag Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi are proving to be pesky allies. In multiple interviews, Paswan has claimed that he is not part of the state government, adding “If I am uncomfortable or too ambitious… I always have the option of walking out.”

Pointing out that the LJP won all the five Lok Sabha seats it contested last year, Paswan said he was aiming for more seats in the 2025 assembly election — reportedly 40, a considerable climbdown from his original statement of contesting all 243 seats. Likening himself to the namak (salt) in the dal — i.e., indispensable — he said that the LJP can secure up to 25,000 votes across constituencies.

Reportedly offered 25 seats by the BJP, Paswan did not confirm or contradict, adding that it would be unethical to reveal the number of seats he’s angling for, as talks on seat-sharing are yet to be held.

With his eyes set on the future assembly elections in 2030 and 2035, Paswan conceded that his followers do want to see him as chief minister, which was only “natural”.

While affirming that there is no confusion about the NDA’s chief ministerial face being Nitish Kumar, Paswan hasn’t hidden his chief ministerial ambitions either. With slogans of ‘Bihar First’ and the emotional card that he is merely responding to calls from his people, he has made it clear that he sees his own political future being successful in this state.

He claims that the LJP — which acted as a spoiler in 2020 by contesting independently and damaging the JD(U) more — is now firmly with the NDA for the upcoming elections.

If Paswan is giving the NDA managers sleepless nights, so is Jitan Ram Manjhi.

Union minister Manjhi, whose son Santosh is an MLA, has lately taken to grumbling about the future of his party, the Hindustan Awam Morcha (HAM). Although 10 years old already, HAM is yet to be recognised as a state party by the Election Commission. The party must win either eight seats in the assembly or secure 6 per cent of the total votes polled to become eligible for such recognition. This, Manjhi argues, will be possible only if the party contests 15–20 seats or fields candidates for all the seats, with the hope of garnering some votes in every constituency.

In 2020, HAM won four of the seven seats it contested, its best performance. This time, Manjhi faces pressure from his children, all seven of whom are apparently demanding tickets. While this is most certainly grandstanding to gain a bargaining point, the threat posed by HAM cannot be taken lightly.

The NDA also has to accommodate its new ally Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP). The old formula may not work, even with tweaks.

In 2020, for example, the BJP contested 110 seats and the JD(U) 115 seats. While the BJP won 74, JD(U) bagged only 43, partly thanks to Chirag Paswan polling substantial votes as an independent.

With the JD(U) diminished and Nitish Kumar weakened since then, the old seat-sharing formula is in doubt. If media speculation is accurate — that the BJP will contest 110 of the 243 seats, leaving 100 for the JD(U) — that would leave just 33 seats to be divided among Chirag Paswan, Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha.

The three allies may have to settle for less than they are angling for, and that could be a problem. Disappointed aspirants from these allies could break out as independent candidates. Yet another headache for the NDA is balancing two competing priorities: offering the JD(U) a respectable number of seats, while allowing the BJP to contest more seats in order to maintain its strike rate.

Conditions in 2025 are not as favourable for the NDA as they were in 2020. While the SIR and targeted freebies may be able to neutralise some of the negative factors, managing internal differences is proving troublesome.

There is consensus that both the BJP and the JD(U) must drop many of its sitting MLAs and field fresh faces in order to win. That’s possibly one reason why, as Chirag Paswan revealed, seat-sharing talks within the NDA are yet to begin.

With notification for the assembly election expected in the next few weeks, mainstream media has chosen to focus on seat-sharing within the INDIA bloc.

Much has been made of Tejashwi Yadav exhorting his followers to vote for him in all 243 seats. This, coupled with a reluctance to name its chief ministerial face, has led media to speculate that the opposition alliance is in trouble.

The INDIA bloc has taken these media reports in its stride. Krishna Allavaru, the Congress’ campaign in-charge in Bihar, points out that several rounds of talks have already taken place. There is complete agreement among alliance partners that the burden would be shared jointly and equally.

INDIA bloc leaders also point out that Tejashwi Yadav’s Bihar Adhikar Yatra is passing through areas untouched by the 16-day Voter Adhikar Yatra. Conscious that alliance partners had not been able to effectively transfer votes to allies in seats not contested by them in 2020, Tejashwi is calling for a united vote this time.

All alliance partners, including the JMM (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha) and LJP (Pashupati Paras), will be allotted seats fairly, says Allavaru, across both strong and weak constituencies.

Shahnawaz Alam, joint coordinator for the Congress campaign, is clear that the INDIA bloc is united in its goal to defeat the NDA. “Our aim is to wrest power in the state after 20 years,” he says, before adding, “In seat-sharing, the winnability of candidates matters more than the number of seats contested by partners.”