Mood of the nation: Modi more popular after Gen Z protests, Ayodhya donation row? Really?

Three different surveys. Three different timelines. Three different samples. Projections based on surveys carried out over the last six months. Yet the findings are presented as the results of a survey conducted after the Gen Z protests in July and the 'chanda chori' (donation theft) controversy at the Ram temple in Ayodhya in June-July.

Yogendra Yadav, a former professional psephologist who was himself a regular expert for India Today on surveys and opinion polls, finds the latest ‘Mood of the Nation Survey’ problematic and has called out the publication.

The survey, he points out, states that 50 per cent of respondents felt the government mishandled the paper leaks. An even higher percentage — 67 per cent — felt that the Gen Z protests at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi in July were justified. As many as 62 per cent of respondents reported their disapproval and disappointment over the 'chanda chori' controversy and confirmed that their faith in the Modi-Yogi governments had been shaken.

And yet, the survey claims that if the Lok Sabha election were to be held today, the BJP’s tally is projected to hit 261, 21 more seats than it won in 2024. The NDA’s tally is projected to be 326, 33more than in 2024. In fact, the NDA’s vote share is also projected to go up by two percentage points, from 37 in 2024 to 39 per cent if the election were to be held today.

Yadav wondered how this made any sense and read the survey report more closely. That was when he stumbled on the fine print in a section on the methodology followed for the survey. It was then that he found that the findings were based on three different surveys.

Only one-fifth of the total respondents, he found, were polled after 1 July. Even fewer — possibly one-sixth — were contacted after the resignation of education minister Dharmendra Pradhan.

Even worse, he says, is the fact that as many as 91,000 of the 1.16 lakh respondents were from the regular tracker of CVOTER, the polling agency, with their feedback collected over the last six months, or 24 weeks.

How can the survey then claim to present the ‘mood of the nation’ in August, he asks.

The survey, he notes, has duly recorded the disenchantment of Gen Z with the Modi government. It has also recorded the dismay and discontent among people over poor handling of the economy and the Modi-Yogi government’s handling of the chanda chori allegations.

But while projecting the vote share and the number of seats, the survey depends on responses collected between March and August. This, Yadav feels, has resulted in an overestimation of the BJP’s tally.

The author, columnist and social activist does not question India Today’s motives, nor does he accuse the publication of deliberately inflating the BJP’s tally. In fact, he points out that he can personally vouch for India Today editor Aroon Purie’s hands-off approach when it comes to surveys and opinion polls.

The methodology followed in this instance, however, should have been flagged upfront to caution readers, he maintains.

His statement ends by demanding that the publication release more information on how the survey was conducted. The three disclosures he has demanded are as follows:

1. Release vote and seat-share projections based only on the survey conducted in July-August 2026 or in August alone.

2. Reveal the questions asked and the sample size of each of the three different surveys.

3. Disclose all methodological details required by WAPOR norms, which the publication claims to follow.