Trump’s USD 17 trillion ‘economic miracle’: A number as grand as his ego?

The economic boom President Donald Trump claims to have engineered rests upon a single, astonishing figure: USD 17 trillion. That, according to him, is the sum of new investments supposedly unleashed by his tariffs, tax cuts and relentless arm-twisting of global CEOs, financiers, and world leaders. In Trump’s telling, this extraordinary windfall will fuel new factories, dazzling technologies, millions of jobs and an unstoppable surge in economic growth.

“Under eight months of Trump, we've already secured commitments of USD 17 trillion coming in,” he boasted in a speech last month. “There's never been any country that's done anything like that.”

It is a statement worthy of the man — large, loud and short on detail. A closer look suggests the figure is inflated, speculative and several trillion dollars short of reality. Even the White House’s own website, which lists total investments at USD 8.8 trillion, seems to have padded its total with commitments actually made during Joe Biden’s presidency.

Repeated requests for clarification on how Trump arrived at his grand total have gone unanswered — perhaps unsurprisingly, since arithmetic has never been this administration’s strongest suit. Beyond the numbers, the boast reflects Trump’s conviction that he can bully the global economy into prosperity through tariffs, threats and public humiliation. It’s a high-risk strategy that could backfire politically if all the bluster fails to translate into real jobs and higher incomes.

So far, public confidence in Trump’s economic handling has been less than stellar. Just 37 per cent of American adults approve of his management of the economy, according to a September poll by The Associated Press–NORC Centre for Public Affairs. That’s a far cry from the 56 per cent who approved in early 2020 — figures Trump frequently evokes with nostalgic fervour when courting voters.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, concedes that Trump’s announcements reflect a “meaningful increase” in investment pledges — but one amounting to hundreds of billions, not trillions. He also warned that such gains come at a cost.

“It is a national security mistake because you're turning allies into colonies of a sort — you're forcibly extracting from them things that they don't see as entirely in their interest,” he told The Associated Press. “Twisting the arms of governments to then twist the arms of their own businesses is not going to get you the payoff you want.”

Trump, however, remains convinced that if he claims it loudly enough, the money will appear. The administration is betting that tariffs and political pressure will compel foreign governments and corporations to invest in the United States — a “big stick” approach other presidents were too timid to try. In Trump’s sales pitch to voters, he personally manages these global investments, with the promised trillions set to roll in next year and revive what he insists is a “flagging” job market.

“The difference between hypothetical investments and ground being broken on new factories and facilities is good leadership and sound policy,” declared White House spokesman Kush Desai.

According to the administration’s own claims, Japan will invest USD 1 trillion, largely “at Trump’s direction”. The European Union is said to be committing USD 600 billion, while the United Arab Emirates has promised USD 1.4 trillion over ten years. Qatar, apparently untroubled by arithmetic, has pledged USD 1.2 trillion, Saudi Arabia USD 600 billion, India USD 500 billion, and South Korea USD 450 billion.

The problem? Many of these “commitments” remain vague, unsigned, or simply implausible. In Qatar’s case, the pledged investment exceeds five times the country’s annual GDP. The White House insists this is feasible because “Qatar produces oil” — a statement that might reassure those unfamiliar with how economies work.

South Korea, meanwhile, has already signalled unease. Its supposed USD 450 billion investment, Seoul notes, is actually USD 100 billion lower — and tensions rose after US immigration agents raided a Hyundai plant in Georgia, arresting Korean nationals. Economists warn that such aggressive tactics could damage South Korea’s economy and further erode trust.

“From what I've seen, these commitments are worth about as much as the paper they're not written down on,” quipped Jared Bernstein, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Biden.

As for the USD 600 billion allegedly pledged by European firms, EU documents suggest these are not firm investments at all, but mere “expressions of interest” stretching to 2029.

Reality check: No sign of investment boom

Despite Trump’s grand claims, there’s been little measurable uptick in business investment as a share of US GDP. During the first six months of his presidency, business spending has hovered around 14 per cent of GDP — virtually unchanged from pre-pandemic levels.

Economists point out that Trump’s team has resorted to double-counting, attributing to itself investments announced under the Biden administration or already in motion thanks to the global artificial intelligence boom.

A case in point: the USD 16 billion investment listed from chipmaker GlobalFoundries. Over USD 13 billion of that was announced while Biden was in office, supported by USD 1.6 billion in grants from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act. Similarly, Trump is taking credit for USD 200 billion in investments by Micron, though USD 120 billion of that was also a Biden-era initiative.

Tariffs as ‘the most powerful tool’ — or just a blunt instrument?

Trump’s team continues to insist that tariffs are the real driving force behind this supposed investment surge. They cite new levies imposed on kitchen cabinets, large trucks and pharmaceutical drugs as proof that the president’s hardball tactics are working.

Last week, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla obligingly endorsed the strategy after his company received a three-year tariff exemption and announced USD 70 billion in new US investments. “The president was absolutely right,” Bourla declared. “Tariffs are the most powerful tool to motivate behaviours.”

Trump, ever eager to underline his role as the world’s economic puppeteer, chimed in: “The tariffs played a big role.”

Whether those tariffs truly played a role in securing USD 17 trillion — or in producing another Trump-sized exaggeration — remains unclear. For now, the only thing expanding faster than the American economy is the president’s self-belief.

With agency inputs