Germany’s incoming chancellor seeks 'true European independence' from US

Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s opposition conservatives, is set to become the country’s next chancellor as his party seems headed for victory in the national election held on Sunday, 23 February. As he prepares to form a government, Merz has vowed to push for greater European autonomy from the United States, as per international media reports.

“My absolute priority is to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can gradually achieve true independence from the US,” Merz stated.

He even questioned NATO’s (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) future in its current form, casting doubt on the stability of the alliance that has long underpinned European security, and from which US President Donald Trump has threatened to withdraw if the Russia-Ukraine war doesn't end soon.

Merz’s push for European independence is rooted in his belief that the continent must prepare for a future where NATO’s current form might not endure, prompting a need for a robust, self-reliant European defence framework.

At 69, Merz faces an uphill battle in coalition negotiations, given Germany's fractured political landscape. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) made historic gains, finishing second after outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular three-way alliance collapsed. However, mainstream parties have ruled out working with AfD, which has received endorsements from high-profile US figures, including billionaire Elon Musk, now a highly influential advisor to Trump.

Merz, who has never held government office, takes the reins at a challenging time. Germany’s economy is struggling, immigration debates are dividing society, and the country’s security position is increasingly strained between an assertive Russia and China and a confrontational US.

In his post-election remarks, Merz sharply criticised the US, likening some of Washington’s rhetoric during the campaign to interference from Russia. “We are under immense pressure from both sides, and my top priority now is to unify Europe. Achieving unity in Europe is possible,” he told fellow leaders at a roundtable discussion, according to a Reuters report.

Despite Trump’s approval of the election results, Merz remained critical of the President’s approach to European affairs.

"Much like in the United States, the people of Germany grew weary of years of impractical policies, particularly on energy and immigration," Trump posted on Truth Social.

However — though previously considered an advocate of strong transatlantic ties — Merz suggested that Trump’s administration had shown little concern for Europe’s well-being.

Following a tumultuous campaign marred by violent incidents in which individuals of migrant descent were apprehended, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance secured 28.5 per cent of the vote, according to projections released late on Sunday by the ZDF broadcaster. The far-right AfD followed closely behind with 20.5 per cent, nearly doubling its previous electoral record.

Viewing the outcome as just the beginning of their rise, the AfD celebrated its gains. "Our hand remains extended for coalition talks," party leader Alice Weidel declared. "Next time, we'll come out on top."

Merz now faces coalition negotiations from a position of relative weakness, because despite the CDU/CSU emerging as the largest political force, it recorded its second-worst post-war election result. The number of partners Merz will need to secure a governing majority remains uncertain, as the fate of smaller parties is still unfolding, potentially complicating parliamentary dynamics.

A three-party coalition would likely prove cumbersome, making it harder for Germany to project decisive leadership.

Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) suffered a crushing defeat, recording their lowest vote share since World War II at 16.5 per cent. Scholz acknowledged the "painful" outcome, while the Greens secured 11.8 per cent, according to the ZDF projection.

Younger voters significantly boosted the far-left Die Linke party, which obtained 8.7 per cent of the vote. Meanwhile, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) hovered near the 5 per cent threshold required for parliamentary representation.

"A three-party government risks further stagnation and indecision unless all coalition members recognise that this is their last chance to implement change and curb the AfD’s growth," Reuters quoted Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at banking group ING, as saying. "If the new government fails to enact meaningful reforms, foreign investors will hesitate, further dampening Germany’s economic prospects."

Voter participation reached 83 per cent, the highest since reunification in 1990, exit polls revealed. Male voters leaned more towards the right, whereas female voters showed stronger support for left-leaning parties.

Merz, a staunch economic liberal who has pulled the conservatives further right, represents a stark contrast to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who steered Germany for 16 years.

Unlike Scholz’s government, which refrained from sending long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, Merz has conditionally endorsed providing such weaponry and views Europe’s security as deeply tied to NATO.

Prolonged coalition discussions could leave Scholz as a caretaker chancellor for months, stalling urgent policies needed to revive Germany’s struggling economy, which has experienced two consecutive years of contraction and faces mounting competition from global rivals.

Such delays would also leave Europe without strong leadership at a critical time, as Trump threatens trade disputes and seeks to broker a fast-tracked ceasefire in Ukraine without European involvement.