Israel’s Qatar strike raises concerns in Turkey over possible escalation

An Israeli airstrike on a Hamas meeting in Qatar has heightened Turkish anxieties that Ankara could be the next target, officials and analysts warn.

Rear Admiral Zeki Akturk, a spokesman for Turkey’s Defence Ministry, said Thursday in Ankara that Israel’s actions in Qatar “may drag the entire region, including its own country, into disaster.” Israel and Turkey, once strong regional partners, have seen relations deteriorate sharply, particularly following the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel and Turkey’s longstanding support for the Palestinian cause.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has criticised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Gaza war, likening his policies to Nazi atrocities, while Ankara has hosted Hamas officials, who Israel accuses of planning attacks and fundraising on Turkish soil. Erdogan maintains close ties with Qatar, which has mediated Gaza ceasefire talks, and is scheduled to attend a summit in Doha this weekend.

Experts warn the Qatar strike underscores Israel’s capacity to act with seeming impunity across the region. “Israel’s ability to conduct strikes, often bypassing regional air defences and international norms, sets a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” said Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu of Trends Research and Advisory. He added that Turkey views these actions as part of a broader Israeli strategy to establish a buffer of weakened or pacified states around it.

Despite its NATO membership and significantly superior military strength compared with Qatar, Turkey is taking precautions. Erdogan has increased missile production, inaugurated the “Steel Dome” integrated air defence system, and fast-tracked projects such as the KAAN fifth-generation fighter. Analysts say while a direct Israeli strike on Turkish territory is unlikely, small-scale attacks on Hamas targets in Turkey could be a possibility.

The incident may also harden Turkey’s support for Hamas. Cubukcuoglu noted, “Abandoning Hamas now would weaken Turkey’s regional influence, while standing firm bolsters its role as a defender of Palestinian causes against Israeli aggression.”

Tensions between Israel and Turkey could also flare in Syria, where Ankara backs a new interim government and seeks to expand its influence, while Israel views the government with suspicion. Both countries have conducted talks to establish a “de-escalation mechanism” in Syria, but analysts warn the region remains a potential flashpoint.

Although Erdogan may rely on diplomacy and hopes for US support to restrain Israel, the Qatar strike demonstrates that even strong Washington ties may not protect against Israeli military actions. “The Qatar attack showed there was no limit to what the Israeli government can do,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.

With AP/PTI inputs