US midterm elections test Trump’s second term as voters weigh economy, Iran war

Millions of Americans voted on Tuesday in midterm elections that could reshape the balance of power in Washington and serve as a referendum on President Donald Trump's second term, amid public discontent over rising living costs and an unpopular war with Iran.

Democrats entered election day cautiously optimistic, betting that frustration over Trump's failure to deliver on promises to tackle inflation would drive their supporters to the polls and weaken Republican turnout.

Republicans, meanwhile, were seeking to retain control of Congress, with the party facing the possibility of losing its majority in the House of Representatives and fighting to hold on to the Senate.

The margins in both chambers were expected to be narrow. Democrats needed a net gain of four seats in the 100-member Senate to secure a majority, while a gain of three seats in the 435-member House would be enough to take control.

More than 57 million people had already cast their ballots by Monday, with early voting exceeding levels recorded four years ago in several closely watched states.

Trump, whose party has struggled to mobilise voters in elections in which he is not personally contesting the presidency, urged Republicans to treat the midterms as though he himself were on the ballot.

“I really want you to pretend I'm on the ballot,” he told supporters in Salina, Kansas, on Sunday, during the final of several dozen rallies held in the closing weeks of the campaign.

In Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, voter Mark Barker said Trump was a major consideration in his decision to vote Republican.

“I've just been following Trump the whole time. I really think he's doing an awesome job,” Barker said, citing the president's border policies, approach to the war in the Middle East and promise of a USD 5,000 payment to every American adult if Republicans retained control of Congress.

In Raleigh, North Carolina, 57-year-old librarian James Moore said he had voted for Democrats to oppose Trump's tax and spending legislation.

“I'm paying more taxes. I'm paying more for my healthcare. I'm paying more for everything,” Moore said. “We need more representatives in Congress that are going to stand up to Trump.”

Control of Congress could reshape final two years of Trump presidency

The election outcome will determine how much room Trump has to pursue his agenda during the final two years of his second term.

Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress, which have largely supported the president's legislative priorities. A Democratic takeover of either chamber would give the Opposition greater powers to investigate the administration and potentially initiate impeachment proceedings.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and technology entrepreneur Elon Musk, a former senior Trump adviser, were among the figures who could face congressional scrutiny.

A strong Democratic performance could also strengthen the prospects of potential presidential contenders, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg.

On the Republican side, Vice President JD Vance and other potential presidential candidates could face a more complicated political landscape if the party suffers significant losses.

Republicans had attempted to improve their prospects through an aggressive redistricting campaign aimed at creating more favourable congressional constituencies. However, newly drawn districts in Florida and elsewhere were not necessarily expected to deliver the anticipated advantage.

Trump's intervention in Republican primaries also created challenges in some competitive races.

In Texas, he backed Attorney General Ken Paxton against incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, setting up an expensive contest against Democratic candidate James Talarico. Democrats hoped Talarico could help them make gains in a state that has traditionally voted Republican.

In North Carolina, Republican Senator Thom Tillis retired after disagreements with Trump. The president's preferred replacement, former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley, faced a challenge from former Democratic governor Roy Cooper.

“Everything depends on turnout. If we turn out our voters, we win, and that's what we've been planning for,” Republican National Committee chairman Joe Gruters said.

An Associated Press analysis of advertising data from media tracking firm AdImpact found that 88.1% of Republican television advertising expenditure during the general election campaign went towards states and districts Trump had won in 2024. More than USD 850 million was reserved for advertising in constituencies where he had secured victory by at least 10 percentage points.

Trump's approval ratings weigh on Republicans

The election was being held against the backdrop of declining public approval of Trump's performance.

Only 35% of US adults approved of his performance as president, according to the latest polling by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

His handling of the economy, once among his strongest political issues, had also weakened. Only 25% of adults approved of his economic performance, with many blaming the administration for rising prices as households struggled with the cost of groceries and fuel.

About seven in 10 Americans said the country was heading in the wrong direction.

“The American people are angry. They want change,” said Representative Suzan DelBene, chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, expressing confidence in her party's prospects.

The election was therefore being closely watched not only for its implications for the composition of Congress but also for the political standing of Trump and the future direction of both major parties.