India to be the second-most obese country by 2050: Study

India is projected to have 45 crore obese and overweight individuals by 2050, making it the second-highest country globally after China, according to a recent study published on 3 March, Monday.

The report highlights a concerning worldwide rise in excess weight among both adults and children, with India set to see a 2.5-fold increase in obesity and overweight cases over the next 25 years, mirroring global trends. This calls for urgent policy interventions and actions to address the growing health crisis.

These findings stem from the latest Global Burden of Disease studies led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington and published in The Lancet.

Globally, it is anticipated that by 2050, around 60 per cent of adults (3.8 billion) and 31 per cent of children and adolescents (746 crore) will be overweight or obese.

In India, the prevalence of obesity and overweight was relatively low until the 1990s, with approximately 12 per cent of adult females and 8 per cent of adult males affected. However, in the subsequent two decades, the figures surged, and now over 25 per cent of women and more than 20 per cent of men are either overweight or obese. A new Lancet study predicts that by 2050, 21.8 crore men and 23.1 crore women in India will be affected by excess weight, totalling 44.9 crore or nearly a third of the country's expected population.

The trend is also alarming among adolescents aged 15 to 24. In 1990, 0.4 crore young men were overweight or obese, a number that grew to 1.68 crore in 2021 and is expected to rise to 2.27 crore by 2050. Similarly, the number of young women in this category has grown from 0.33 crore in 1990 to 1.3 crore in 2021, with projections showing 1.69 crore by 2050.

India had the highest number of obese and overweight adolescents in 2021, surpassing China and the United States, which had been leading in 1990.

The study also warns that the rising rates of obesity in low- and middle-income countries, coupled with persistent childhood malnutrition and widespread infectious diseases, could place additional strain on already overwhelmed healthcare systems. Childhood undernutrition, it says, may lead to adaptations such as the accumulation of fat tissue, which can trigger obesity in adulthood. This increases the likelihood of early-onset diseases such as Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular conditions, and certain cancers.

A key driver of this obesity epidemic is the increased consumption of processed foods high in salt, sugar, and fat. The study notes that multinational food and beverage corporations, as well as fast-food chains, are shifting investments from high-income to low- and middle-income countries.

This shift is due to population growth, rising per capita incomes, and weaker regulations, creating lucrative markets. Between 2009 and 2019, the largest annual growth in ultra-processed food and beverage sales per capita occurred in countries like Cameroon, India, and Vietnam.

Public health experts, including those from the World Health Organization (WHO), have identified overweight and obesity as significant health threats, with nearly 3.71 million deaths and 129 million morbidity cases attributed to these conditions in 2021 alone.

The trend of rising obesity rates is also evident among children. Among 5-14-year-olds, the number of overweight or obese boys increased from 4.6 crore in 1990 to 13.3 crore in 2021, and girls from 4.5 crore to 12.4 crore. By 2050, these figures are projected to reach 16.1 crore boys and 14.4 crore girls. Lead author Emmanuela Gakidou of the IHME called the global obesity epidemic a “profound tragedy and monumental societal failure.”

The study also highlighted that newer generations are gaining weight faster than their predecessors, leading to earlier onset of Type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and various cancers.

In 2021, eight countries—China (402 crore), India (180 crore), the USA (172 crore), Brazil (88 crore), Russia (71 crore), Mexico (58 crore), Indonesia (52 crore), and Egypt (41 crore)—accounted for more than half of the world’s obese or overweight adults.

The prevalence of obesity has risen by 155.1 per cent in men and 104.9 per cent in women since 1990. In India, the obesity prevalence is estimated at 4.4 per cent for men and 7.5 per cent for women.

India’s sharp increase in obesity rates mirrors the rising consumption of ultra-processed foods, with the largest growth in sales per capita occurring in India, alongside countries like Cameroon and Vietnam, between 2009 and 2019.

The study suggests that current policies are unlikely to curb the obesity epidemic, with only 40 per cent of countries having an operational policy or strategy to tackle the issue. This drops to just 10 per cent in low-and middle-income nations. It also points out that most obesity interventions have been studied in high-income countries, underscoring the need for more research on effective solutions for low-income settings.

India, China, and the USA are expected to remain the top three countries with the largest populations affected by obesity and overweight. Globally, if current trends continue, it is estimated that 3.8 billion (380 crore) adults over the age of 25 will be overweight or obese by 2050, comprising over half of the global adult population, with nearly 2 billion of them being obese.

In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of overweight or obese individuals is expected to increase by a staggering 254.8 per cent by 2050. In 2021, the global total of overweight or obese

adults stood at 2.11 billion (211 crore), with one billion men (100 crore) and 1.11 billion women (111 crore).

The study also reveals that the most rapid increases in obesity prevalence have been seen in North Africa and the Middle East. The shift of fast-food chains from high-income to low- and middle-income countries is contributing to this rise, with factors such as population growth, higher per capita incomes, and weaker regulations creating favourable conditions for the growth of the ultra-processed food market.