Will Iran be able to control the growing trouble within?

Iran is in a state of turmoil. Protesters have taken to streets in over half a dozen cities, including its capital Tehran. Nearly two dozen people, including two security personnel, have been killed till January 1 in demonstrations that suddenly erupted in Shia religious pilgrimage city Meshhad last Thursday. Protesters are angry and have attacked security establishments like police stations and army centres. There are reports of angry crowd attacking even seminaries and raising slogans against President Hasan Rouhani and Iranian supreme leader Ayatullah Khamenei.

The recent round of protests is basically against mounting economic ills of a vast section of Iranian society. A large number of youth is said to be participating in demonstrations against the government. Iranians have been suffering long with economic hardships because of American sanctions against the country’s nuclear programme. Unemployment is rife in the country. There are reports of nearly 30-35 per cent unemployment within the youth segment.

Besides, Iran has been essentially an open and liberal society before 1979 Iranian revolution led by the Shia clergy. The clergy controlled post-revolution Iranian establishment clamped down heavily on Iranian women imposing Islamic restrictions like hijab. The women had been fighting long for relaxation in regressive anti-women laws. There were lot of hopes from liberal President Hasan Rouhani in this area.

President Rouhani is a liberal who, in his second term generated lots of hope both on economic and women fronts. Rouhani had pitched a nuclear deal with Americans promising Iranians that their economic hardships would ease once American administration lifts economic sanctions against Iran. The deal was done, the US administration eased sanctions but there was not much flow of money into Iranian economy. Rouhani also did not deliver much in easing strict Islamic sharia laws for women.

It seems to have fueled fire against Rouhani led Iranian government as well as the clergy which controls Iranian life. Protesters are raising slogans both against Rouhani and Khamenei. Demonstrations are spreading fast and furiously. Even Tehran is now affected. Serious warnings have been issued by the government which may soon clamped down on the demonstrators.

Will Iranian government manage to contain the growing trouble within the country? Iran has been a witness to serious anti-government demonstration in 2009 when thousands took to streets against the then hardliner President Ahmedi Nijad who was said to have rigged his second term elections. The government then clamped down heavily and crushed the movement then labelled as “Green Revolution”.

Iran has many enemies both within and outside who would like to add fuel to the fire already burning on Iranian streets. The Trump administration would do everything both covertly and overtly to dethrone the mullahs. Israel and Sunni Saudi Arabia too are hostile to Tehran which is openly meddling in middles eastern affairs in a big way. Iran is now said to be politically controlling three Arab capitals, Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut. It is also involved in a proxy war with Yemen. All the three, the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel have common interest in reigning in Iranian Ayathullahs.

Ayatullahs of Iran are facing a major challenge to their rule in Iran. It is not just street protests they have to mind. They would have to watch some powerful foreign lobbies interested in forcing Iranian government to get bogged down in internal matters rather than meddling in Arab affairs. It may lead to intensification of anti-government protests initially leading to heave government crackdown on protestors. It seems a long haul for Iranian reformists either way.