Delimitation explainer: Why southern states will lose, no matter what Amit Shah says

Delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies is a constitutional mandate and is unavoidable unless the government and Parliament agree to amend the Constitution or extend the freeze imposed in 1976, which ends this year. There is considerable confusion about the exercise, partly because the last nationwide delimitation was conducted between 2002 and 2008 without changing the number of Lok Sabha seats. This explainer attempts to answer some of the most frequently asked questions:  

What is delimitation? 

Allocation of Lok Sabha seats among states and division of constituencies are mandated by Article 82 of the Constitution after every Census. In 1976, the process was frozen until 2000. In 2001, the freeze was extended until 2026. The 87th amendment in 2003 allowed the use of the 2001 Census for redrawing boundaries within states without adding new constituencies. 

What is the Delimitation Commission?  

The Delimitation Commission of India was first formed in 1952 under the Delimitation Commission Act, 1952. It is a statutory, quasi-judicial body constituted from time to time by Parliament, not a permanent institution, and its decisions — by constitutional mandate — cannot be challenged in court. It is headed by a retired Supreme Court judge and has the chief election commissioner as a member. The last Delimitation Commission was constituted in 2002 after the 2001 Census, and submitted its report in 2008.

When is the next delimitation due? 

The delimitation exercise can kick in once the report of the ongoing 2027 Census is released. The government will then constitute the commission as explained above.   

What is the controversy? 

Since allocation of Lok Sabha seats is linked to population, more populous states in the Hindi heartland are expected to gain a higher number of seats than less populous ones, raising concerns about imbalance and loss of political clout. As it is, all five southern states combined — more prosperous and less populous than the north — have just 129 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha based on the 1971 Census. When the benchmark shifts to the 2027 Census, their number of seats is expected to go up to 159 or so, while Uttar Pradesh alone is expected to have a minimum of 120 seats, possibly more. 

Is it only a question of maths, or do other factors weigh in? 

Assuming the population of India as 145 crore and the projected population of Uttar Pradesh as 27 crore, the maths provides the following numbers: If the Lok Sabha expands to 850 seats, then 145 crore divided by 850 results in each MP representing 17 lakh voters. 

By the same token, UP’s population of 27 crore divided by 17 lakh yields 159 Lok Sabha seats, not 120 as is generally assumed. The assumption is based on Union home minister Amit Shah's statement that each state will see a uniform 50 per cent increase in the number of MPs.

However, though in purely mathematical terms, UP may be eligible for 159 MPs, the Delimitation Commission is also expected to use different parameters and take into account administrative and geographical factors to moderate the number and influence of a state, capping the number of MPs from UP, say at around 140. This demonstrates how complex the exercise is.   

Based on the population projected in the 2027 Census, how many seats are the five southern states and the five most populous northern states likely to gain?  

The five northern states (UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and West Bengal) could see their combined strength in the Lok Sabha rise from 216 in 2026 to anywhere between 323 and 378 after delimitation. At the same time, the five southern states (Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana) are likely to see the number of seats go up from 129 now to anywhere between 163 and 190. It will mean a disproportionate growth in political power for the northern states. 

What was the Delimitation Bill, 2026 all about?  

In April, the government introduced a Delimitation Bill which sought to initiate the exercise on the basis of the 2011 Census, without waiting for the 2027 Census, which also includes a caste census. The Bill also sought to expand the size of the Lok Sabha to a maximum of 850 MPs while linking it to women’s reservation, offering to reserve one-third of the additional seats for women. The Bill failed to muster the required two-thirds majority of MPs present and voting, and consequently fell through. 

What are the arguments in favour of a larger Lok Sabha? 

Currently, each Lok Sabha MP represents, on an average, 18 lakh voters. There are five Lok Sabha constituencies with over 20 lakh voters. The number of voters in Malkajgiri in Telangana in the 2024 general election was 37.8 lakh, followed by Bengaluru (North) with 32 lakh and Ghaziabad with 29 lakh. In contrast, Lakshwadeep was the smallest Lok Sabha constituency with 58,000 voters, followed by Daman and Diu with 1.34 lakh and Ladakh with 1.90 lakh.  

So the MP from Malkajgiri represents 650 times more voters than the Lakshadweep MP. In 1971, India’s population was 54 crore, with 27 crore registered voters. In contrast, in 2024, the number of registered voters was an estimated 97 crore. 

What are the arguments against electing more MPs?  

MPs do not run the government and are not drain inspectors, points out election analyst Dorab Sopariwala. They are expected to legislate and oversee policies, expenditure and functioning of the Union government, not get roads repaired. It is, therefore, immaterial whether an MP represents 18 lakh voters or 12 lakh voters.

Moreover, the Parliament currently sits for less than two months in a year; and barely 16 per cent of Bills are sent to parliamentary committees for scrutiny. Indian MPs, therefore, are not overworked. In fact, too many Bills are being passed by the Lok Sabha far too quickly, in a matter of minutes. How will more MPs help? 

As it is, most Lok Sabha MPs do not get time to speak, raise questions or grill the government. More MPs will help political parties and politicians but will add to the salary, pension, housing, transport and perks. The population of the US has gone up by three times since 1929 when the number of Representatives in the US Congress was frozen. India needs a better and more functional Parliament, not more MPs.    

Why is the government reportedly planning to rush through another Delimitation Bill? 

The BJP apparently wants to go into the 2029 Lok Sabha elections after delimitation because a higher number of seats in the populous Hindi heartland, where it remains a dominant political force, would give it an unassailable advantage over the Opposition, which is stronger in the southern states.

It also wants to take credit for finally implementing women’s reservation without sacrificing existing seats occupied by men. Some observers also believe that the BJP wants to avoid the consequences of the caste census by pushing through delimitation based on the 2011 Census without waiting for the 2027 Census to end. 

What prevents the BJP from achieving the same results with the 2027 census?  

The delimitation exercise is complex and time-taking. The exercise in Assam alone took six years from 2002-08. The more recent exercise in Jammu and Kashmir also lasted from 2020-22. A nationwide delimitation is expected to run into political opposition, ethnic tension and security concerns, and could take much longer. Assuming the 2027 Census reports are finalised by the middle of the year, the Delimitation Commission will have just one-and-a-half years to complete the exercise ahead of the 2029 general election.