China rules out hosting COP33 climate summit in 2028

China has ruled out hosting the 33rd UN climate summit (COP33) in 2028 after months of deliberations, disappointing climate experts who had hoped the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter would take a leading role in international climate negotiations.

The decision leaves other Asian countries in contention to host the conference, which is scheduled to take place from 6 to 17 November 2028. Uzbekistan, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand are among the countries understood to be considering a bid.

Former US vice-president Al Gore expressed disappointment over Beijing's decision, saying he would have supported China hosting the summit.

China's position as the world's second-largest economy and its growing dominance in clean energy technologies had made it a significant potential host, experts said.

The country has undergone a major energy transition, with its renewable energy generation capacity now exceeding that of coal. Its greenhouse gas emissions also appear to have declined slightly this year.

Electric vehicles account for nearly two-thirds of China's automobile market, while its clean energy industries contributed more than 90 per cent of the country's investment growth last year.

John Kerry, former US secretary of state, has said China is leaving other countries behind in developing and deploying low-carbon technologies.

Gareth Redmond-King, international lead at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said China's position as an industrial powerhouse would have made its hosting of the summit significant.

He said the country was leading the world in investment, manufacturing and deployment of clean energy technologies, while its emissions had begun to decline.

US political calendar could be a factor

The reasons behind China's decision are unclear. However, experts have suggested that the timing of the 2028 US presidential election could have influenced Beijing's calculations.

The US presidential election is scheduled for 7 November 2028, coinciding with the period immediately before COP33. The summit is due to begin on 6 November and conclude on 17 November.

US President Donald Trump has rejected climate science and withdrawn the country from the Paris Agreement. His administration is also withdrawing the US from the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the treaty that underpins international climate negotiations.

China has sought to position itself as a leader among developing countries but has been cautious about assuming the global climate leadership role left vacant by Washington.

Under former US presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, Washington and Beijing had worked together on climate issues, including setting joint targets to reduce methane emissions and developing clean technologies.

India also rules out hosting

India's government had considered offering to host COP33 for several months earlier this year but subsequently decided against it.

The country has expanded its renewable energy capacity and exceeded some of its own clean energy targets, even as coal consumption continues to rise.

COP33 is expected to be particularly significant as it will include the global stocktake under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The mechanism assesses countries' progress towards meeting the agreement's climate goals, including limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

That threshold is now expected to be breached, but climate experts say countries must still seek to minimise the extent of the overshoot and limit the resulting damage from extreme weather.

No decision on the host country is expected at the ongoing COP31 summit in Turkey, which is being jointly presided over by the Turkish and Australian governments.