Kerala stares at power crisis if deficit monsoon continues

Kerala is witnessing a deficit monsoon to the tune of 65 per cent from the normal monsoon and this has resulted in record low levels of water in the dams across the state. The southwest monsoon arrived a week later in Kerala on June 8.

The normal average rainfall during this month is 577.8 mm rainfall, but the actual rainfall has only been 203.5 mm. The regional meteorological department, Kerala, said they were expecting more rainfall during next week. "There has been a deficit of 65 per cent rainfall in Kerala compared to the normal average during this season. All the districts in Kerala have received below-normal rainfall this season so far,” said Dr VK Mini, director in charge, IMD, Kerala.

However, in May, the IMD had predicted normal rainfall for Kerala. Their bulletin had stated, “In June, below normal monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where above normal rainfall is expected.”

However, Vice President of Meteorology at Skymet Mahesh Palawat said rainfall deficiency is likely to persist in Kerala.  “It is difficult to say what the rainfall will be next month in Kerala. But for the two weeks, there will only be light to moderate rainfall. The overall deficiency is likely to remain. In the last few years, Kerala has seen deficient rainfall. If any weather system develops over south Arabian Sea, only then will Kerala see high rainfall to make up for the deficiency, but as of now there is nothing,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology at Skymet.  

As a result of the deficit rainfall, Kerala will have to import electricity. The average energy consumption in the state is 77.04 mu, but Kerala has only been able to produce 9.94 MU. This internal generation includes hydro, thermal, solar and wind power, out of which 6.99 MU is hydel generation and the state has had to import 67.1 mu power. This is likely to lead to an energy crisis in the state and financial crisis in Kerala.

Normally during June, KSEB internal hydel generation used to be 22-25 MU/day. This includes export during non-peak hours.

Idukki district has seen a 67% dip in rainfall this monsoon and as a result the water level at the Idukki reservoir is at 2,305.3 ft, which is just 13.63 per cent of the total storage capacity of 2,403 ft. This is against the 2,338.6 ft during the corresponding period last year. Normal rainfall in Idukki district is supposed to be 654.9 mm for the same period from 1 June 2023 to 27 June 2023, but district received only 175.5 mm rainfall.

The water inflow to the Idukki dam was 59.61 mcm, while during the same period last year it was 94.41 mcm. In June 2021, it was 297.1 mcm and in 2018, when Kerala saw floods, it was 352.3 mcm. The average inflow to the dam since 1981 during June 1st to June 26th has been 183.14 mcm.

A KSEB dam official said that if the same situation continues, the water level will drop to 10 per cent of the total storage. This is likely to lead to a power and water shortage in the state unless monsoon changes. The reservoir supplies water to the Idukki Hydroelectric Power Station, the largest power generation centre in Kerala. 

All the major four dams in the state are witnessing very low storage. As of June 27, water in Idamalayar dam in Ernakulum is it 18.16 per cent of the total storage capacity, while last year in June it was 30.36 per cent. There has been a rainfall deficit of 52 per cent in Ernakulam with only 304.8 mm rainfall, when the normal average is double at 628.8 mm.

 In Pathanamthitta district’s Kakki dam, water is at 10.23 per cent of the total capacity, while last year during the same period it was 25.31 per cent. The district has seen a rainfall deficit of 34 per cent. The normal average rainfall during this period is supposed to be 461.8 mm, but it has only been 307 mm.

In Wayanad district’s Banasura Sagar, the water is at 6.84 per cent, while in June 2022 it was 13.11 per cent. Here too, the district has received 82 per cent deficit rainfall compared to the normal average. The district has seen only 111.1 mm rainfall, when the average is 607.3.

Kottayam (-63), Kozhikode (-76), Malappuram (-69), Palakkad (-72) districts too have seen a largely deficit monsoon.