Trump’s Nobel dream shines bright, but looks unlikely this year

As Nobel season arrives with its annual swirl of speculation, US President Donald Trump has found a way to make the world’s most prestigious peace prize about himself.

The former and now once-more President has long been dropping not-so-subtle hints that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize, a claim met with polite scepticism from those who actually track such things.

Trump’s fascination with the Nobel is hardly new. Ever since his first term, he has angled for the award with the eagerness of a reality TV contestant chasing a final rose. Last month, speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, he repeated a familiar refrain: “Everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize.”

Of course, everyone does not say that — and in any case, people cannot nominate themselves. But that hasn’t stopped Trump from turning his pursuit into a global spectacle, cheerfully reminding the world that modesty was never his strong suit.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee, which quietly decides the laureates behind closed doors, is unlikely to be swayed by public lobbying or self-promotion. That has not discouraged Trump’s fans and political allies from sending his name their way — again and again.

He has been nominated several times since 2018, including most recently by US Representative Claudia Tenney (Republican, New York), who praised his brokering of the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab states in 2020.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and even Pakistan’s government also reportedly submitted nominations — though, inconveniently, both came after the 1 February deadline for the 2025 award.

None of that, of course, has dented Trump’s confidence. He frequently insists he “deserves” the prize, claiming credit for “ending seven wars” and teasing that he might end an eighth — the Israel–Hamas conflict in Gaza — through his self-branded 'Peace for Gaza' plan.

“Nobody’s ever done that,” he boasted last week to military leaders at Marine Corps Base Quantico. “Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not. They’ll give it to some guy that didn’t do a damn thing.”

As it happens, Israel and Hamas have since agreed to the first phase of Trump’s peace plan — a ceasefire and hostage exchange — prompting a chorus of “Nobel Prize for Trump!” chants in Tel Aviv’s Hostages Square.

Not content with one peace claim at a time, Trump has also revived an old boast: that he single-handedly brokered a "ceasefire" between India and Pakistan in May — a statement both countries politely ignored at the time, and one he has now repeated as “proof” of his global statesmanship.

Those familiar with the Nobel process suggest Trump’s chances are, shall we say, limited. Theo Zenou, a historian and research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, told the Associated Press that the committee typically rewards sustained, cooperative peacebuilding rather than flashy one-off deals.

“There’s a huge difference between getting fighting to stop in the short term and resolving the root causes of the conflict,” Zenou said. He added that Trump’s approach to climate change — “not believing in it” — may also clash with the committee’s view of environmental security as a key pillar of lasting peace.

“I don’t think they would award the most prestigious prize in the world to someone who does not believe in climate change,” Zenou said. “When you look at previous winners who have been bridge-builders, embodied international cooperation and reconciliation: these are not words we associate with Donald Trump.”

The Nobel Committee, wary of political theatre, has learned from experience. In 2009, it faced a storm of criticism for giving the peace prize to Barack Obama just months into his presidency — a precedent many observers now cite as reason to avoid another controversial US laureate.

Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, believes Trump’s endless self-promotion only hurts his chances. “The committee won’t want to be seen as caving in to political pressure,” she said. “His rhetoric does not point in a peaceful perspective.”

Or, as one Oslo insider put it less diplomatically: “You can’t badger your way to a Nobel.”

Trump’s fixation on prizes — especially those involving gold medallions and ceremonies — has become a reliable subplot of his political life. Yet, for all the chest-thumping, the Nobel Committee’s track record suggests it prizes quiet diplomacy and collective effort, not dramatic press conferences and capitalised tweets.

Even so, Trump’s campaign for the Peace Prize may already have achieved its real goal: keeping Donald Trump in the headlines. And on that front, few can dispute his success.

As the Nobel announcements roll on — medicine Monday, physics Tuesday, chemistry Wednesday, literature Thursday, and economics next Monday — the Peace Prize remains the most closely watched.

For now, Trump’s dream remains tantalisingly out of reach. But if you ask him, he’s already won — several times over. “They should give it to me,” he declared recently. “For Gaza, for the Abraham Accords, for North Korea, for India and Pakistan — nobody’s done more for peace than Trump.”

Whether the Nobel Committee agrees is another matter entirely.

With agency inputs