India should worry about the US–China–Pak threesome

It’s back to the 1970s, when India was up against an unfriendly tripartite bloc consisting of the United States, China and Pakistan. It’s not openly hostile yet this time around—and US President Donald Trump is like a joker in the pack— but India should worry. The possibility was flagged by this writer months ago. In the 1970s, India had the Soviet Union as a steadfast ally to counter the threat.

Today, given its intimacy with China, Russia cannot be expected to extend the same support. Sample the media spin on the recent Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. ‘A temporary truce in US–China trade tensions’, a Financial Times headline read, referring to yet another lowering of US tariffs on Chinese goods.

But as per The Guardian: ‘America has discovered that bullies can be bullied back’. Which is on point. By standing up to Trump—instead of cowering and retreating out of sight like Narendra Modi—Xi conveyed that Trump couldn’t unilaterally set the terms of trade or engagement with China.

Trump took a while to understand that China couldn’t be bullied—his threats of 100–145 per cent tariffs notwithstanding; he also ultimately understood that China, like the US, has enough leverage to stand its ground. And so it is that ahead of the meeting with Xi in South Korea, Trump posted on Truth Social, ‘THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY’. This new formulation— ‘G2’—made everyone sit up, as surely intended, but it also told Xi that the US was now addressing China at level.

The Diplomat wrote: ‘Branding his meeting with Xi as a ‘G2’ encounter signals, at minimum, recognition of China as a co-equal. It suggests a desire, however vague, for a bilateral arrangement in which Washington and Beijing manage world affairs together.’

If indeed Washington and Beijing get closer, India’s utility to the US administration will diminish, and make redundant the Quad grouping of the US, Japan, India and Australia—an alliance created to contain China.

In July 1971, at the height of the Cold War, Henry Kissinger, national security advisor to then US President Richard Nixon, flew secretly from Pakistan to China to meet the Chinese premier Zhou Enlai. The purpose was to checkmate the Soviet Union, whose ties with fellow communist power China had deteriorated sharply since the 1960s. As per declassified records in the US National Archives, ‘the Pakistani channel produced an important message from Zhou in December 1970’.

Indian diplomacy under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh consolidated relations between the US and India, and also practically finished Washington’s partnership with Islamabad. Trump’s annoyance with Modi, and his apparent animus towards India, has brought Pakistan in from the cold.

Pakistan now has strategic partnerships with both the US and China, and it couldn’t be happier if Sino–US ties improve because it won’t have to choose between the two. To have both China, its all-weather ally, and now the US in its corner for economic, political and military assistance will no doubt embolden it further vis-à-vis India.

In such a context, the 10-year US–India defence framework agreement is akin to America running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. ‘Defence will remain a major pillar of our bilateral relations,’ Indian defence minister Rajnath Singh recently posted on X.

But what will the “coordination, information sharing and tech cooperation” that US defence secretary Pete Hegseth spoke of achieve if India’s main military concerns, namely China and Pakistan, are both pals of Washington?

Eleven years of Modi has left India isolated and insecure. A tariff truce with the US, surely round the corner, will almost certainly leave India worse off and an improvement in ties with China will be cosmetic at best.

Rise of the Left in Ireland

The Irish inspired Indian nationalists to aspire for independence. But while the Republic of Ireland coveted Northern Ireland, which remains British territory, the sectarian conflict between a Catholic southern republic and a Protestant majority North soured that ambition.

However, joining the European Union and concomitant affluence have reduced religiosity on both sides of the border in the island of Ireland. And the unification dream is realisable yet, where Catholics and Protestants live together in peace and harmony.

The election of a left-wing pacifist, Catherine Connolly, 68, as the new President of Ireland is a preview of that possibility. She will be sworn in on 11 November. The office of head of state in Ireland is largely ceremonial but is widely respected as a conscience-keeper of Irish society.

Connolly’s campaign underlined the plight of Palestinians in the face of Israel’s genocidal project in Gaza. Her campaign struck a chord with people who are alarmed by growing far right populism in Europe. But where is India?

Even monarchies with limited democracy in West Asia, not to forget India’s bête noire Pakistan, have played a hand as mediators on the international stage. Whereas India under Modi has cosied up to far right leaders and surrendered its leadership of the Global South.