Trump hints at retreat, US waives sanctions on Iranian oil

Did the US President just propose a retreat from its unilateral war on Iran? His post on Truth Social indicated that he proposed to declare victory in the war and walk away. Analysts are sceptical though because his posts are often deceptive, contradictory and unreliable. With the US rushing in marines to the Persian Gulf and with no pause on bombing operations, it is difficult to ascertain how serious the US President is.

If one breaks down the US president’s post, it claims that the mission of the war has been accomplished, though there is no mention of regime change or collapse of the Iranian ‘regime’. The post states, “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great military efforts in the West Asia with respect to the terrorist regime of Iran: (1) completely degrading Iranian missile capability, launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) destroying Iran’s defence industrial base. (3) eliminating their navy and air force, including anti-aircraft weaponry; (4) never allowing Iran to get even close to nuclear capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place; (5) protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.”

Iranian missiles, however, continued to pound Tel Aviv and Haifa overnight and Iranian Revolutionary Guards dared the US to send in ground troops. “U.S. government says one thing, reality says another Right as U.S. authorities claim Iran’s air defences r gone, an F-35 gets hit. As they declare Iran’s navy finished, USS Gerald Ford turns back, and USS Abraham Lincoln drifts farther away,” posted Iran’s foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on X in response.  

Referring to Vietnam Araghchi recalled, “Americans haven’t forgotten how, even as hundreds of U.S. soldiers were dying in Vietnam, and the outcome was already clear, General William Westmoreland was flown home to reassure everyone that the war was going well — that the U.S. was “winning.” The media haven’t forgotten either; those briefings full of fantasy from the frontlines became infamous as the “Five O’Clock Follies."” Fast forward to today: same script, different stage…”.

The next part of the US President’s post on Truth Social states, “The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other nations who use it — the United States does not! If asked, we will help these countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy military operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter!" In short, the US is washing its hands off the maritime mess created by the closure of the strait of Hormuz because of the war. Since South Asian countries, Japan and China get a substantial requirement of oil through the strait—and GCC countries receive their supplies of food—the US appears to leave them to negotiate terms with Iran to keep the strait open.

Iran is, however, unlikely to end the war without receiving reparations and compensation for damages caused by the war, a permanent and credible guarantee against future attacks and a tax for using the strait of Hormuz to rebuild its ravaged economy.