Bihar: NDA's vote share shrunk despite majority, RJD's share grown

As assembly elections approach next year, the sands are shifting—and it is likely political alliances and poll strategies will shift in tandem

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav addresses a rally (file photo)
RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav addresses a rally (file photo)

NH Political Bureau

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has seen a mixed bag of results in Bihar. Despite the Modi-led coalition managing to secure 31 out of 40 seats in the state, there has been a noticeable dip in its overall vote share, raising concerns ahead of the 2025 assembly elections in the state.

This is part of an evolving political dynamic in the state, and will likely motivate all parties to reassess their approaches to either maintain or enhance their electoral standing.

The BJP, the leading component of the NDA, won 17 seats but experienced a decrease in its vote share, which has dropped from 23 per cent to 20.5 per cent.

The Janata Dal (United) — a key ally nationally for the Lok Sabha as well — secured a better strike rate by losing only 4 out of the 16 seats it contested for, but it also saw its vote share shrink from around 23 per cent to 19 per cent.

The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) also faced a decline, with its vote share falling from 8 per cent to 6.5 per cent.

Notably, the victory margins of individual NDA candidates have also diminished. Rajiv Pratap Rudy, for instance, recorded the smallest victory margin, defeating Lalu Prasad Yadav's daughter Rohini Acharya by just 13,600 votes.

On the other hand, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which managed to win only three seats this time in the general elections, has recorded a significant increase in its vote share, rising by 6 percentage points. In 2019, the RJD had garnered only 15.7 per cent of the vote share, but has improved its share to 22.14 per cent.

This shift highlights a growing support base for the RJD, which could potentially reshape the political landscape in Bihar.

The Congress party has also experienced a modest increase in its vote share, climbing from 7.9 per cent to 9 per cent.

Bihar observers say that the JD(U)'s performance in the Lok Sabha polls positions it as a crucial player at the Centre — despite its reduced vote share, it looks to have continued influence upon and strategic importance for the NDA.

As Bihar gears up for its 2025 assembly elections, however, these shifts in vote shares and reduced victory margins may be both evidence of the electorate's developing perspective and an impetus to shape political strategies and alliances in the state in the year ahead.

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