Diwali 2025 trade hit record Rs 6.05 lakh crore: all-India traders’ body

India recorded its highest-ever Diwali trade this year, with total sales estimated at Rs 6.05 lakh crore, according to a nationwide survey conducted by the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) — amid a slew of advertising touting post-GST amendment prices for consumers. Goods accounted for Rs 5.40 lakh crore of the total, while services contributed Rs 65,000 crore, representing a 25 per cent increase over last year’s Rs 4.25 lakh crore.

The survey, conducted by the CAIT Research and Trade Development Society across 60 major distribution centres, including state capitals and Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, collected data from thousands of traders to assess retail and consumer activity over the festival season.

Delhi’s Chandni Chowk BJP MP and CAIT secretary general Praveen Khandelwal hastened to claim that 87 per cent of consumers preferred Indian-made goods, contributing to a sharp decline in sales of imported products, particularly from China. Sales of domestic products reportedly rose by an average of 25 per cent compared with 2024.

Sectoral trends and service impact

The report highlighted sector-wise sales, with grocery and FMCG making up 12 percent of total trade, followed by gold and jewellery (10 per cent), electronics and electricals (8 per cent), consumer durables (7 per cent), readymade garments (7 per cent) and gift items (7 per cent).

Other categories, including home décor, sweets, textiles, pooja items, fruits, bakery items and footwear, accounted for smaller shares, with miscellaneous items making up 19 per cent.

The services sector, encompassing packaging, hospitality, transport, event management and delivery, generated an estimated Rs 65,000 crore, indicating that the festival’s economic impact extends beyond physical retail.

Trader and consumer confidence

CAIT’s survey also suggested strong confidence among traders and consumers, with the Trader Confidence Index at 8.6 out of 10 and the Consumer Confidence Index at 8.4.

Around 72 per cent of traders attributed higher sales volumes to reduced GST rates on daily-use items, including footwear, garments, home décor and consumer durables. Stable pricing and higher disposable income were also cited as factors that boosted festive spending.

Employment and rural participation

The Diwali trade reportedly created nearly 50 lakh temporary jobs across logistics, packaging, transport, hospitality and delivery services. Rural and semi-urban areas contributed about 28 per cent of total trade, highlighting growing consumption outside metropolitan centres.

All development progressing well, then? Well, analysts seemed a tad sceptical.

Analysts caution on sustainability

While the data shows a strong festive performance, analysts have warned that such consumption spikes may not be sustainable. The boost in sales is largely seasonal, raising questions about the resilience of small traders and manufacturers once festive demand declines.

The strong preference for domestic goods indicates a shift in consumer behaviour, but sustaining growth beyond the festival period will require structural reforms.

In particular, ahead of the festive rush, the Opposition pointed out the FMCG slowdown and 3,000 GST complaints registered — all painting rather the market prospects in rather dull colours, going forward.

And indeed, even with the record-breaking sales figure anticipated, CAIT has recommended measures to support growth — including simplified GST compliance, better access to credit for small businesses, expansion of logistics and warehousing in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, promotion of digital payments for low-ticket items and improved urban market infrastructure.

The survey underscores Diwali’s continuing importance to India’s retail economy, yes — but also signals the need for longer-term policy measures to maintain consistent growth throughout the year.