El Niño could strain India's power system, widen coal dependence: CREA

New Delhi: India is likely to face greater stress on its power system than any other country during the upcoming El Niño, with weaker renewable energy generation and rising electricity demand for cooling expected to widen the gap between supply and demand, according to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

The analysis, which models the impact of the expected transition from La Niña to El Niño between July 2026 and June 2027, warns that the weather pattern could reduce electricity generation from wind and hydropower while simultaneously driving up demand for air conditioning amid higher temperatures.

According to the report, the additional cooling demand alone could reach 10 terawatt hours (TWh) over the year, equivalent to around a quarter of Delhi's annual electricity consumption.

Combined with lower renewable energy output, India could face a power generation shortfall of nearly 18 TWh, the analysis said.

It warned that the most likely response would be increased coal-fired electricity generation, resulting in an estimated 17 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions.

"In the most severe scenario, the extra coal generation reaches 24 TWh, roughly half of India's entire increase in coal burn last year," the report said.

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern associated with warmer global temperatures, while La Niña represents its cooler phase.

The report said the expected 2026 El Niño should be viewed as an indication of increasingly frequent extreme weather events linked to climate change, underscoring the need to strengthen the resilience of India's power grid.

"India has just endured a deadly heatwave and one of its hottest summers on record, pushing power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. A super El Niño will raise the stakes again, putting even more strain on the grid while worsening water shortages and pressure on farming," it said.

CREA said India should remain on course to achieve its target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based power capacity by 2030, while accelerating investments in battery storage and grid modernisation to ensure clean energy can reliably meet future spikes in electricity demand.

The report noted that record electricity demand peaks, including the 270 GW recorded in May, are often cited to justify additional coal-fired capacity. However, it argued that coal-fired power plants face increasing operational challenges in responding to fluctuations in electricity demand throughout the day.

According to the analysis, grid operators curtailed around 2.1 TWh of solar and wind generation last year to keep coal-fired power plants operating.

The report said expanding solar power offered a more resilient alternative, noting that solar currently meets around 24 per cent of India's daytime electricity demand and is far less affected by El Niño than wind and hydropower.

"Every additional solar panel and battery that India installs helps future-proof the grid against extreme weather patterns like this one," the analysis said.