Numbers aren’t the whole story

The recent death of 24-year-old Deepika Nagar in Greater Noida has forced the country to confront a brutal truth: crimes against women continue to surge, despite what the statistics show.

Deepika died in the wee hours of 18 May, after allegedly being thrown from the roof of her marital home over unmet dowry demands. Her parents say they had already paid a dowry of Rs 20 lakh, but her husband and in-laws were allegedly demanding another Rs 50 lakh and a Toyota Fortuner.

Barely a week earlier, on 12 May, model and actress Twisha Sharma was found hanging in her in-law’s house in Bhopal. (Her mother-in-law is retired principal district and sessions judge Giribala Singh.)

During the post-mortem, investigators failed to produce the belt used in the alleged suicide. Women’s rights activist Dr Ranjana Kumari of the Centre for Social Research publicly questioned how such a crucial lapse could occur in a sensitive dowry death investigation. In Twisha’s, as in many such cases, husbands and key accused conveniently disappear before arrests can be made.

These are not isolated tragedies. They are part of a far larger national emergency only partially reflected in the National Crime Records Bureau’s latest data.

According to the NCRB, 4.41 lakh cases were registered in 2024, slightly lower than the 4.48 lakh recorded in 2023. The crime rate also dipped marginally from 66.2 to 64.6 per lakh women. Does this mean women are safer? Read on.

India recorded 5,737 dowry deaths in 2024 — that’s an average of nearly 16 deaths every day. Even as the number of crimes against women continue to rise — which the NCRB attributes to improved reporting — conviction rates remain scandalously low.

A rape is reported in India every 18 minutes. Yet the national conviction rate in rape cases stands at just 24.4 per cent. In practical terms, that means not even 25 of every 100 reported cases end in conviction. In deeply patriarchal states such as Uttar Pradesh and Haryana, conviction rates often fall below 20 per cent; in poorer states including Bihar and Jharkhand, below 10 per cent. In dowry death cases, conviction rates hover between 11 and 17 per cent nationally.

The notorious delays in the Indian judiciary system don’t help either. Witnesses are often intimidated and the accused, often better-connected and with better resources, are known to influence the judicial process.

Delhi exemplifies this institutional failure. Despite recording some of the country’s highest rape figures (1,058), its conviction rate remains at 33.5 per cent — technically above the national average but still alarmingly inadequate. More damningly, Delhi is the most unsafe city for women despite the police functioning directly under the Union home ministry for the last twelve years.

Domestic violence remains the most widespread but underreported crime against women. Of the 13,396 cases registered in Delhi, 4,647 pertained to cruelty by husbands or relatives. NCRB figures show that domestic violence accounts for 42.3 per cent of all crimes registered against women. Activists say the real numbers are far higher.

According to National Family Health Survey-5 data, nearly one in three married Indian women has experienced physical, sexual or emotional violence at the hands of her husband. Most never approach the police. Even among reported cases, conviction rates average barely 11 per cent.

What emerges from state-wise crime data is equally disturbing.

Gujarat, the apple of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s eye, site of the famous ‘Gujarat model’, witnessed a 33 per cent increase in violent crime in 2024 (6.15 lakh cases) as against 2023, with further increases reported in 2025. Ahmedabad reported 62 rape cases, Surat 84.

Shockingly, Gujarat recorded the highest number of rape cases against tribal women in the country, with 384 FIRs filed in a single year. Another 7,355 cases of sexual assault against minors were registered, many involving young girls.

Odisha, considered comparatively safer for women, has seen a worrying deterioration following the swearing-in of BJP chief minister Mohan Charan Majhi. Official data show a 7.3 per cent rise in cognisable crimes in 2025, with total cases increasing from 2,14,113 to 2,29,881. Crimes against women and children rose by 5.6 per cent, crossing 32,000 reported cases. In Bhubaneswar alone, crime increased by nearly nine per cent.

Madhya Pradesh continues to remain among the country’s worst-performing states on women’s safety. As of June 2025, more than 23,000 women and girls were reported missing. Around 1,500 rape-accused are absconding.

Chief minister Mohan Yadav should hang his head in shame because his state recorded the highest number of rapes on pregnant women in the country — for the third consecutive year. Reports from districts such as Bhopal, Dhar, Shivpuri and Satna detail repeated incidents of extreme sexual violence involving politically connected individuals.

In Haryana, violent crime has become a major political issue under chief minister Nayab Singh Saini, who also holds the home portfolio. NCRB data indicate that five sexual offences occur every day in the state. Congress leader Kumari Selja recently pointed out that 7,547 cases of crimes against children were registered in Haryana in 2024, nearly 18 per cent higher than the 6,401 cases recorded in 2023. These included serious offences such as sexual abuse, kidnapping, violence and murder.

In Bihar, reported incidents surged from 52,165 in 2023 to more than 1,07,303 in 2024 — an increase of over 105 per cent. Reports emerging through early 2026 indicate repeated incidents of gang rape, including assaults on minors in villages, trains and rural districts.

Maharashtra recorded an 89 per cent increase in violent crime, jumping from 46,249 cases in 2023 to 87,791 in 2024. The state also reported the country’s highest number of crimes against children (24,171) with Mumbai second only to Delhi in crimes against women among major metropolitan cities.

In the hill state of Uttarakhand, crimes against women rose by 36 per cent — rape cases alone rose by 30 per cent after 2022. Sadly, investigations have been marred, with the police accused of giving clean chits to suspects because of their links to the ruling party.

Take the example of the alleged gang rape of a 16-year-old Class 10 student in Champawat on 5 May 2026. (Champawat falls in chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami’s constituency.) The father named a BJP functionary and his colleagues as the rapists. Dhami — who hasn’t been able to put a lid on the statewide protests that continue to simmer over Ankita Bhandari’s murder in 2022 — ordered senior bureaucrats and police to swing into action. The case was ‘solved’ in 24 hours — the police announced there had been no rape and the girl’s father withdrew his complaint.

Uttar Pradesh, despite chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s repeated assertions of “zero tolerance” towards crime, continues to report the highest number of crimes against women in India. Reported cases rose from 49,385 (2020) to 56,083 (2021) to over 65,000 (2022-24). Clearly, 15,726 ‘encounters’ staged between March 2017 and December 2025 have not eliminated all the “hardened criminals”.

Looking south, Telangana saw total cognisable offences rising nearly 19 per cent in 2024. While Bengaluru stood third among 19 metropolitan cities with 5,612 cases of violent crime, Karnataka recorded a decline in crime rates for 2024.

Those who draw comfort from the marginal decrease in the national crime rate would do well to remember that political rhetoric around women’s safety is collapsing against the ground reality. As the latest video (17 May) of rape-accused (Sushil Prajapati, a former member of Hindu Yuva Vahini) being garlanded and paraded by supporters on release from jail reveals, perpetrators know they can, and will, get away with it.