In Gaza, while you weren’t looking…

The attention of the world has shifted from Gaza, but for Palestinians the situation is more or less unchanged — the savagery of the Israeli pounding may have abated but the ‘truce’ has brought no real peace. While the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is being heralded in diplomatic circles as a new beginning, for Palestinians, the so-called ‘transition’ phase is just a quieter phase of occupation, blockade and violence.

When the ceasefire came into effect on 10 October, and there was a let-up in the big strikes and demolitions, there was a deceptive sense of relief. On 24 November, a group of UN experts, monitoring the situation in Gaza, documented at least 393 violations by Israeli forces during the ceasefire, in which 339 Palestinians have been killed, including more than 70 children. They described these violations as blatant breaches of the agreement.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is still dire. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that only two of six crossings are open, and the flow of aid trucks is far below the agreed target of 600 a day.

In the West Bank, which the peace plan barely addresses, the situation is no less alarming. Access restrictions, settler violence and military incursions have increased dramatically. Thousands of Palestinians have been displaced in the West Bank since October 2023, and humanitarian aid workers report hundreds of incidents of being held, interrogated or blocked by Israeli forces.

The joint UN–World Bank–EU Interim Needs Assessment estimates that Gaza’s economy contracted by 83 per cent in 2024, and while the West Bank did somewhat better, it still saw a 16 per cent contraction and a sharp spike in unemployment.

Yet, diplomatic circles are painting a rosier picture of progress. The UN Security Council’s resolution #2803 on 17 November endorsed the US blueprint for Gaza. It authorises an International Stabilisation Force (ISF), a transitional ‘Board of Peace’ supervised by the US, and the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces linked to undefined milestones of demilitarisation. It speaks of a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination, but only after reconstruction and reform of the Palestinian Authority.

The language is conditional, the timetable vague, accountability absent. This ‘historic’ blueprint has all the hallmarks of yet another interim arrangement in which Palestinians bear the burden, while Israel gets away without any accountability for the genocide. The ceasefire is not even a cessation but a recalibration, with Israel still at liberty to amp up the attacks at will.

One of the most glaring issues is humanitarian access. Before the war, Gaza received roughly 8,000 truckloads of commercial and humanitarian goods per month; today, it receives a fraction of that. Agriculture is collapsing in Gaza: the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that by mid-2025, only 1.5 per cent of Gaza’s cropland was accessible and undamaged.

One humanitarian agency warns that famine has officially taken hold in parts of Gaza, with the blockade deepening the crisis.

Hospitals face catastrophic shortages of fuel, medicine and basic infrastructure. The WHO reports that more than 8,000 patients (including over 5,100 children) have been evacuated from Gaza in the past two years. An estimated 16,500 are still waiting to be evacuated while more than 900 died waiting. These are not even direct casualties of the war, but the toll from an ongoing saga of siege, isolation and deprivation.

In the West Bank, the pattern is different, but no less pervasive. Road closures, checkpoints, newly erected barriers and permit regimes have split communities, cut off agricultural land, restricted movement for work, health and education.

One survey by ‘Doctors of the World’ found that 93 per cent of humanitarian organisations said roadblocks, permit denials and checkpoint delays have hindered aid delivery. The displacement continues, jobs are vanishing, livelihoods collapsing.

Yet the diplomatic blueprint of ‘peace’ barely mentions these realities. The plan for Gaza speaks of decommissioning weapons and withdrawing Israeli forces but the question of accountability for the past two years of war is entirely absent.

The plan for the West Bank is virtually invisible. The occupation, settler-colonial expansion and system of racial segregation and apartheid have been left untouched as if they weren’t even a problem — when anyone with a modicum of sense and shame in that community will know that the forced Israeli occupation is THE problem.

The United Nations’ own human rights experts have warned that this peace plan is not a path to peace but rather an attempt to entrench occupation. They have cautioned that without accountability for atrocities, without dismantling the system of occupation and apartheid, there can be no lasting peace.

The logic of this arrangement is clear. By shuffling the pieces around — a transitional authority, an international force, a pathway to self-determination ‘when conditions permit’ — the international community can claim ‘progress’ even while the structures of domination remain intact.

So, what must change in this setup to give peace a real chance? The ceasefire must bring an end to the use of military force, it must end the blockade. The international stabilisation force must guarantee Palestinian rights rather than reinforce Israeli dominance.

Humanitarian aid must flow unrestrained, crossings must be opened, rapid evacuations made possible and functional medical care ensured so that thousands more don’t die just waiting. Most importantly, the machinery of occupation must be dismantled—it simply cannot be ignored in any peace process that really aims for lasting peace.

Ashok Swain is a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden. More of his writing may be read here