The dubiousness of being Doval

Over the past 11 years, what role has Ajit Doval played? Arguably the most powerful and longest serving National Security Advisor (NSA), this ‘security tsar’ enjoys the complete trust of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Both think alike when it comes to ‘dealing with’ national security and international relations; both thrive on selective propaganda; both revel in building myths around their personalities.

The similarities end there. Modi is 75 years old; Doval is 80. Modi hogs the spotlight; Doval remains a shadowy figure — calling the shots and dictating policies from behind the scenes, without ever having to defend them in public. As for being held accountable for any policy disasters — nope.

It is Doval, the NSA, who would have advised the prime minister to go ahead with Operation Sindoor. Both subscribe to the ‘ghar mein ghus kar marenge’ school of thought, glorified in media as the ‘Doval doctrine’. Yet, as subsequent events have shown, Operation Sindoor achieved next to nothing. Terror networks in Pakistan have not been busted. Most experts are of the opinion that the threat of terror attacks in India have actually increased after the unilateral military action by India.

The operation did nothing to diminish Pakistan’s international stature. US President Donald Trump invited Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir to lunch at the White House. While Indian strategists dismiss Pakistan as a ‘basket case’, the neighbour we love to hate has not only secured the firm support of China after Operation Sindoor, it has also improved relations with the US, Russia and Turkey. Despite India’s protests, Pakistan has secured a financial bail-out package from the International Monetary Fund.

If, as Trump claims, the Indian Air Force (IAF) lost as many as five aircraft on 7 May — the very first night of Operation Sindoor — it amounts to a severe loss of face for India. In his Singapore interview for Reuters, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan admitted that the jets were flying within Indian air space and that — after the initial losses — the IAF could not take to the sky during the next 40–48 hours.

Captain Shiv Kumar, India’s military attaché to Indonesia, also went on record to admit that losses were sustained because the IAF was told not to strike at Pakistan’s air-defence system.

The Indian armed forces have been smarting ever since Pakistan Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed asserted at the 11 May international press meet that Pakistan had brought down six Indian aircraft including three Rafael jets on 7 May. Beginning with a sharp opening salvo — “PAF: 6, Indian Air Force: 0” — which quickly went viral, Ahmed went on to provide the exact locations where the planes were shot down.

While General Chauhan did admit to the loss of ‘less than six’ aircraft, the NSA stayed silent.

India clearly misjudged Pakistan’s ability and capacity to retaliate. Operation Sindoor was launched around 1.00 am on the night of 7 May. The very next morning, India seems to have communicated with Pakistan to say that its strikes were ‘non-escalatory’ and, having struck nine targets in Pakistan, it had achieved its objective. Was this message conveyed after Pakistan had downed five IAF fighter planes? If yes, can Operation Sindoor be called a success?

The miscalculation went beyond underestimating Pakistan’s military capacity. By telling the world that India could do in Balochistan what Pakistan was doing in Kashmir, the ‘Doval doctrine’ toppled India off its moral high horse.

Without credible evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pahalgam attack, India’s unilateral military action was seen as a rogue action. While the Pahalgam terror attack was condemned by all countries, not one supported India’s retaliation.

Lt General Rahul R. Singh, deputy chief of army staff, also went on record to confirm that China provided “live inputs” to Pakistan on Indian operational deployment even when talks were underway between the two DGMOs. It was obvious that China was using the northern border as a ‘live lab’ to test its weaponry and advanced radar systems working with AI and satellite inputs. Much of this would — or at least should — have been known to India’s strategic planners before launching Operation Sindoor.

The misjudgement was largely due to intelligence failures before both the Pahalgam attack and the launch of Operation Sindoor. It seems inconceivable that Indian intelligence could be unaware of Pakistan’s close military association with China. Yet, the Indian military and political establishment appear to have been caught by surprise — thanks to real-time surveillance by Chinese satellites which conveyed information about India’s military movements to Pakistan’s air command.

Despite the Intelligence Bureau (IB), Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) and other intelligence agencies reporting to the NSA, Doval has not spoken in public about India’s colossal intelligence failure.

Doval’s dossier looks impressive. Said to be a ‘Pakistan expert’, a ‘Kashmir expert’, a ‘Punjab expert’, he was the longest-serving Special Representative of India in border talks with China. As NSA, he heads the National Security Council, which includes the ministers of home, finance, defence and external affairs. He spearheaded the Naga Accord in 2015, which the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN–IM) alleges was abandoned because the Modi government backtracked, unwilling to cede autonomy to a ‘Christian-majority state’. A decade after ‘a breakthrough framework agreement’, the accord has been forgotten.

Let us not forget that as NSA, Ajit Doval is also responsible for the sad situation in Manipur. Never before has any state’s armoury been looted by mobs — much of which loot remains to be recovered two years after the troubles broke out. The army is unable to keep the two warring ethnic groups apart across what is a notional ‘border’. The principal secretary of Manipur has been changed four or five times and no resolution is in sight.

If there is one person who can be held responsible for the failures at home (the Naga Accord, Manipur, Kashmir) and in the neighbourhood (Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka); for shifting — indeed unstable — relationships with China, the US, Canada and other BRICS nations, it is the NSA.

India need not have showered so much attention on the handful of Khalistani activists in Canada and America. By foregrounding them as a serious threat to national security, India has revived the zealousness of separatist groups. India also cut a sorry figure after its intelligence agencies were linked to several assassination attempts in Canada and the US.

“India’s repeated intelligence failures,” says defence expert Sushant Singh, “stem from systemic issues, lack of inter-agency coordination, inadequate reforms, shortage of trained manpower, a poor technological set-up and a failure to act on available intelligence. This is compounded by a political leadership which is ideologically driven and has over-centralised most of the government functions.”

After getting bullied by Trump, Indian strategic planners are going all out to ease relations with China. Several ministers visited China in quick succession after Operation Sindoor. External affairs minister S. Jaishankar had a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in late July; the Indian government resumed issuing visas to Chinese citizens after a gap of five years. It is very likely that India will relax norms for Chinese investments in India. Modi himself is preparing the ground for a visit to China later this year.

However, buffer zones along our eastern boundary in Ladakh remain out of reach for Indian military patrols. The situation remains tense in Arunachal Pradesh. India’s border dispute with China remains unresolved and China is no longer supplying us critical rare earths, fertilisers and tunnel boring machines.

On top of that, China has commenced building the world’s largest dam across the border in Arunachal Pradesh, which is likely to affect the flow of water in the Brahmaputra.

In short, the achievements of the NSA during his 11-year tenure are questionable at best. Why the government has not been able to find a replacement remains a mystery. Even as a Bollywood film modelled loosely on the myths around ‘Dhurandhar Doval’ is said to be on the floor, ‘Disastrous Doval’ is closer to the facts. “He is too old, his worldview is archaic,” said a strategic expert, adding: “It’s time for him to quit gracefully.”