Explainer: The US midterm polls and what the results may mean for India

• Democrats have an edge in the race for the House, while control of the Senate remains uncertain.

• Rising consumer prices and President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings could work in the Democrats’ favour.

• The midterm results could influence US trade, tariffs, immigration and relations with India.

What are the midterm polls?

US presidents serve four-year terms. Halfway through a sitting president’s term, nationwide midterm elections are held to elect members of Congress, governors, state legislators and other local officials.

The US Congress has two chambers — the House of Representatives with 435 members, and the Senate with 100 members, two from each of the 50 states.

Midterm elections do not directly affect the sitting president’s tenure, but can determine which party holds the majority in either or both chambers of Congress. They also serve as an indicator of public support for the incumbent president’s policies.

Significance of the midterm polls in 2026

The elections will allow voters to elect representatives to all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, whose members serve two-year terms.

At the same time, 35 of the 100 Senate seats, which carry six-year terms, are also up for grabs — 33 regular elections and two special elections in Florida and Ohio. Several gubernatorial elections will also be held, with governors serving as the chief executives of their respective states.

Unlike centralised electoral systems, voting, ballot printing and counting in the US are decentralised, with elections administered independently by state governments and local authorities.

The House and the Senate

The US Congress has two chambers — the House of Representatives and the Senate. The House consists of 435 members, each serving a two-year term. This means every seat in the chamber is contested during each midterm election.

In the Senate, members serve staggered six-year terms, with roughly one-third of the 100 seats — usually 33 to 35 — coming up for election every two years.

Republican vs Democrat strength in Congress

Republicans currently hold a 218-214 majority in the House of Representatives, with two vacancies and one independent who caucuses with them. In the Senate, Republicans maintain a 53-47 majority.

With President Donald Trump’s approval rating low, Democrats see an opportunity to wrest control of both chambers of Congress.

During the first two years of his second term, Trump enjoyed the support of Republican majorities in both chambers. If Democrats take control of either or both chambers, as some polls forecast, the White House will find it more difficult to push through its legislative agenda.

When the president’s party retains control of both the House and the Senate, passing legislation, funding executive projects and securing confirmation of judicial appointments becomes relatively easier.

The results of the 2026 midterm elections will therefore determine whether Trump spends the remaining two years of his term advancing major policy initiatives or defending his administration against congressional pushback.

What are the forecasts?

The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found Democrats leading Republicans by 52 per cent to 44 per cent among likely voters. Morning Consult’s Midterm Ballot Tracker showed Democrats ahead by 50 per cent to 43 per cent, while an Emerson College national poll put the Democrats’ lead at 52 per cent to 42 per cent.

Most forecasters currently consider Democrats favourites to retake the House.

Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 77 per cent chance of winning control of the House and projected that they would secure roughly 235 seats. An analysis attributed to CNN’s Harry Enten projected that Democrats had a 92 per cent chance of winning the House, according to his model.

The Senate race is seen as considerably more competitive. Decision Desk HQ estimated that Democrats had a 56 per cent chance of winning control of the chamber, projecting a narrow 51-49 Senate majority.

Trump’s weak approval rating

Rising prices of food items, milk and meat — with beef becoming unaffordable for many Americans — are among the key factors shaping the midterm elections this time.

Trump’s economic policies, his handling of international relations, the war with Iran and his support for Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu have also contributed to his unpopularity.

The Marist poll measured Trump’s disapproval rating among likely voters at 59 per cent. His approval rating reached an all-time low of 32 per cent, according to a September Reuters/Ipsos poll.

When will the results be known in India?

Early results should begin appearing around 3.30 am IST on 4 November. A fairly clear picture of control of the House and the Senate could emerge by afternoon or evening, provided key races are not extremely close.

If control of either chamber hinges on a handful of tight races, however, the final outcome could take several days to emerge.

What do the midterm polls mean for India and the world?

The outcome of the US midterm elections can directly influence foreign policy, diplomatic relations and global trade.

For India and other strategic partners, a shift in congressional leadership could change the course of critical legislative decisions, including federal defence spending, regional security initiatives in the Indo-Pacific and high-tech transfers.

The midterm elections are being held at a particularly delicate phase in India-US bilateral relations, with an interim trade framework yet to be ratified and newly passed legislation threatening tariffs of up to 100 per cent on major purchasers of Russian energy.

Moreover, with Indian nationals facing curbs on labour certification and visa extension policies, the balance of power in Congress could influence the direction of these policies, alongside decisions on international trade, tariffs and immigration rules.