When Trump has to worry about ‘affordability’...

For a person with a limited vocabulary, encountering a new expression is like discovering a diamond. At the beginning of his second term as president of the United States, Trump found one such gem — ‘reciprocal tariffs’. He loved the sound of it, especially ‘reciprocal’, called it “beautiful” and waved it around with gay abandon.

But soon, his beloved reciprocal tariffs, which took on the appearance of vengeful import duties in some cases, brought him face to face with another word he didn’t much care for or know about — ‘affordability’. The overzealous application of tariffs, which Trump imagined was a way to put the slowing US economy back on track, has backfired, increasing the tax burden on American consumers, stoking inflation and creating a cost of living crisis.

This month, candidates of his Republican party got a drubbing in elections to posts of mayors, state governors and Congress. Trump said he ‘wasn’t on the ticket’, trying to shift the blame, but he must know that it’s his policies that have triggered the public reaction.

When it looked like he didn’t have a winning hand, he tried to fête a winner — New York’s mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, whom he had called all sorts of names earlier, including ‘Communist’, which can really make Americans see red. Trump knows Mamdani’s winning formula, his laser focus on the question of ‘affordability’, has traction with the people, it resonates with their concerns, but he doesn’t know how to adopt it without losing face.

Already, his much-trumpeted Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which sacked thousands of federal administration employees, has effectively folded up, amid rising unemployment. He has withdrawn tariffs (most recently on coffee, bananas and beef from South America) and not carried out his threat against Canada. Or he has struck a deal — as with China. The TACO tag (Trump Always Chickens Out!) seems apt.

Commentators in the US are making dire predictions about darkness enveloping the Trump presidency. A U-turn on tariffs might also be suicidal — how would he explain it to the MAGA mob?

The US Supreme Court is considering whether to strike down Trump’s claim to emergency powers to levy tariffs by executive fiat. The nine-member bench has so far sounded disinclined despite a conservative majority, not swayed even by Trump’s rant on Truth Social: ‘Those opposing us are serving hostile foreign interests that are not aligned with the success, safety and prosperity of the USA.’

An adverse judgement will be a big blow for Trump and his administration — and arranging refunds within and outside the US a perfect nightmare.

Last month, the Senate voted 51–47 against Trump’s tariffs, though the House of Representatives hasn’t yet followed suit. But if ‘affordability’ dominates the debate, Republican lawmakers, now more emboldened to resist Trump, might just.

In the best-case scenario according to many DC insiders, Trump will stumble along till the midterms in November 2026, before he loses control of the Congress, where Republicans have a slim majority and the Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to overturn it. Given that Trump is quite incapable of conjuring bipartisan support, losing the House would for all intents and purposes make him a lame duck president.

There is a noticeable spurt in public protests in America. Placards at rallies demand ‘Impeach. Convict. Remove’. An ‘impeachment’ is possible after next November — it requires a simple majority in the House.

But a ‘conviction’ requires two-thirds support in the Senate. This will be harder, unless there is a revolt in the Republican benches. ‘Removal’ from office is automatic if there is a conviction. Trump has been impeached twice — in 2019 and 2021 — but neither impeachment resulted in a conviction. So, he could carry on.

David Rothkopf, a prominent US policy analyst, says “He [Trump] is staring death in the face, his political mortality is right around the corner.” The economy, Rothkopf explains, was the big issue in last year’s presidential election, which Trump won. But 61 per cent of Republicans now think he is doing ‘a bad job’ in this sphere. Job losses are at their worst in 20 years, the cost of healthcare has doubled, and there are half-a-million more houses than buyers in America, he says.

So, if the writing is on the wall for Trump, should India be in a hurry to sign a trade deal with him? An agreement today could conceivably be less advantageous than one six months to a year down the line. How long India can withstand falling exports is the question. India’s overall trade deficit reached a record high of $41.7 billion in October 2025.

India’s fragility arises from the Modi government’s failure to boost or diversify exports. Its external debt at the end of 2024 had rocketed to $717.9 billion. Unlike other countries, Modi did not learn any lessons from Trump’s first term. The Indian economy has its own share of problems, even more acute than America’s — unemployment and inequality are far worse, for example — but Indians are not quite done yet, it seems, with the misgovernance of Mr Modi.

Ashis Ray can be reached on X @ashiscray. More of his writing can be found here