Odisha: Naveen babu’s crumbling fortress

For nearly a quarter century, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by Naveen Patnaik dominated Odisha politics crafting an image of unassailable strength. His image as BJD’s infallible poll mascot was delivered a cruel blow in last year’s Assembly elections, followed by the crushing defeat in the recent Nuapada Assembly by-poll.

Despite Patnaik (now 79) campaigning in the heat and dust of the western Odisha Assembly segment — something he has rarely done in the past by-polls — party candidate Snehangini Chhuria, a former minister, finished a poor third.

While BJP candidate Jay Dholakia, son of former BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia whose death necessitated the by-poll, received 1,23,869 votes, Ghasiram Majhi of the Congress polled 40,121 and Chhuria — despite her much-vaunted organisational skills and her supposed popularity among women — could manage just 38,408 votes.

The defeat must sting because Nuapada remained a BJD stronghold even during the 2024 Assembly elections, when the party was voted out of power. The loss underscores the party’s struggle to maintain relevance and cohesion in a rapidly changing political landscape.

In sharp contrast to BJP chief ministers of Odisha and Chhattisgarh — Mohan Charan Majhi and Visnu Deo Sai, respectively — the BJD chief presented a pathetic sight during the campaigning. Unable to walk without the support of his security guards, he had to be propped up on stage at his public meetings. Never much of a public speaker, he spoke even less this time.

Patnaik’s diminished public presence and muted campaigning left voters unconvinced, especially against a background of internal party erosion and external challenges.

The early blow came with the surprise defection by Jay Dholakia to the BJP. The BJD struggled to find a candidate to replace him. By the time Chhuria reluctantly agreed to step in, much of the damage had been done. Handpicked by Patnaik, she carried the outsider tag in Nuapada and the BJP left no stone unturned in playing it up.

Patnaik, who could once sway voters with a wave and his standard one-liner greeting, ‘Moon khushi apana mane khushi ta? (I am happy, are you also happy?)’ failed to convince the voters of Nuapada. “Patnaik has repeatedly avoided addressing the question of succession in the party and failed to create a second rung leadership. The BJP seems to be taking advantage of this,” said political analyst Shashi Kant Mishra.

The BJP started on its move to engineer defections in the BJD soon after coming to power, focussing initially on its Rajya Sabha members. The first BJD Rajya Sabha member to quit was Mamata Mahanta, a backward caste leader elected in 2020. She resigned in July 2024, was immediately inducted into the BJP and secured a Rajya Sabha seat.

Next was Sujeet Kumar who, too, joined the BJP and was made a Rajya Sabha MP. A bigger jolt for the BJD, however, was the defection of its former Rajya Sabha member and poll strategist Amar Patnaik who, much to the embarrassment of Naveen Patnaik and his loyalists, joined the BJP in the midst of campaigning for the Nuapada by-poll.

Chief minister Majhi, facing his first electoral test in Nuapada, knew he had to ensure his party’s victory by a big margin to establish his own political credentials. No wonder he pulled out all stops to secure Dholakia’s win.

Despite the setback, former BJD MLA Latika Pradhan feels it is too early to write off Patnaik or the BJD. “We all know that by-polls usually go in favour of the ruling party. And BJP used every trick in its bag to win this election. But this will not happen every time,” she said.

The question now is whether Patnaik and the BJD can reinvent themselves. With the BJP’s rise and its engineering strategic defections, things don’t look favourable for the Biju Janata Dal given its current state of affairs and the health of its supreme leader.